CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND THE UAE

 

PROF. DR. FIRUZ DEMIR YASAMIS

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY IN THE EMIRATES

 

 

What is global warming?

As a result of combustion of the fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum several gaseous and solid materials are emitted into the ambient environment form the chimneys and the exhaust pipes. Since the industrial revolution in 1850s the amount of emissions has been tripled and researches indicate that trend will continue if effective remedies are not applied. These material s -known as greenhouse gases- (GHG) Include carbonic particles, carbon oxides, sulfur oxides and hydrocarbons and several others.  Once they have been emitted, they are diluted in the atmosphere by the prevailing winds and hence no visible effects can be observed. However, GHGs are accumulating in the atmosphere thus creating a barrier between the earth and the sun. Consequently, x-rays coming from the sun are being trapped when they have been reflected back by the Earth’s surface. This entrapment is increasing the temperature on the globe known as global warming.

 

What is climate change?

Since the global increase in temperature is continuing the amount of the water evaporated over the oceans and seas are increasing and therefore the amount of the water (vapor) in the atmosphere is increasing. It is understood that the increasing amount of water is creating two important consequences due to the characteristics of the evapotranspiration: amount of precipitation coming back to the Earth as rain or snow is increasing and the velocity of the wind patterns is growing. So, climate (temperature, precipitation pattern and wind pattern) is changing.

 

Impacts of global warming and climate change

The visible impacts of this phenomenon are floods, inundations, heavy blizzards, and lack of precipitation, drought, hurricanes, typhoons and others. This process is called as climate change. More importantly, as a result of the increasing surface temperature the polar ice caps are melting rapidly thus causing sea level rise all over the World.

The impacts of the climate change and global warming are well explained and documented in the reports of the UN International Panel on Climate Change [1] which clearly states that almost 90 per cent of the causes leading to the climate change and global warming is anthropocentric.

A report edited by Mostafa Tolba and Najib W. Saab titled as “Arab Environment Climate Change” [2] summarizes the potential impacts as follows:

1.      Water sources

2.      Sea level rise (SLR)

3.      Human health

4.      Food production

5.      Tourism

6.      Biodiversity

7.      Land use and urban planning

I will use same classification to explain the conditions in the UAE.

Water resources:

Due to the climate change water resources are not stable any more. Although is it not possible to forecast when the drought period will occur and when it will be replaced by excessive rains, it is clear that during the drought cycle there will not be enough precipitation and during the excessive rain period the amount of precipitation will cause to floods, inundations and landslides thus taking all the water into the seas and oceans without properly feeding the underground water sources. Therefore, it is quite likely that water shortage will be eminent in the future thus causing more pain caused by the increasing demand for water because of rapidly increasing population and rising level of living standards of the people all over the World.

From the point of view of the UAE water shortage is a crucial problem. It is estimated by the IPCC that the UAE’s fresh water potentials will severely be reduced by 2025 [3] which is already low. This will create a serious water security issue for the UAE in the upcoming decades.

Sea level rise (SLR)

Increasing amount of polar ices (as already photographed and filmed) means more fresh water into the oceans thus rising level of seas and oceans. At the moment half of the World population is living in coastal settlements and two third of the industry is located in and around the shoreline due to the transportation feasibilities. Besides, there are a lot of fertile lands in the coastal areas or on the deltas where fertile land is available. Therefore, urban lands, human settlements, fertile agricultural lands, transportation infrastructure and industries will be in jeopardy. The small island states in the oceans will disappear, Egypt’s main income generating fertile land in front of the Aswan Dam will be covered by salty water and Venice and Manhattan will not be accessible any more.  [4]

All are also correct for the UAE. Simply because the UAE has a very long shoreline and the big portion of the land is almost at the sea level. Therefore, the UAE is one of the most vulnerable countries to the SLR. This has also been admitted by the Nakheel Company officials [5] who made considerable investment in the palm islands and declared that they have taken into consideration the official estimates of the SLR for the next hundred years and built the islands accordingly. In the Gulf Region the case of Bahrain seems to be more important than the other countries in the region.

 

Human health

The following paragraph has been quoted from the report edited by Tolba and Saab: “Human health would be adversely affected by higher temperatures, mainly due to changes in geographical ranges of disease vectors like mosquitoes, waterborne pathogens, water quality, air quality and food availability and quality. Incidence of infectious diseases like malaria and schistosomiasis will increase, mainly in Egypt, Morocco and Sudan. Malaria, which already infects 3 million people annually in the Arab region, will become more prevalent and enter new territories as higher temperatures reduce the incubation period, spread the range of malaria-bearing mosquitoes and increase their abundance. Higher CO2 concentrations and fiercer and more frequent sand storms in desert areas will increase allergic reactions and pulmonary diseases all over the region.” [6], [7]

 

The human health impacts on the UAE cannot be ascertained and predicted for the future due to lack of data and researches. However, it can be guesstimated that the similar trends are likely to occur in the UAE  as well. Contingency plans should be prepared to avert the human health security threats in the future.

 

 

Food production or food and nutrition safety

Changing climate is very likely to have adverse impacts on food production. Diminishing supply of water will create and excess demand for irrigation water and agricultural production will be hampered in non-irrigated areas. It is also likely that the amount of agricultural product will be negatively impacted. More importantly some fertile agricultural land will be occupied by salty water thus making agricultural production impossible.  All these will have three repercussions: lowering level of agricultural products, increasing food prices and diminishing national output. Increasing food prices will create a food and nutrition safety issue especially for lower income families mainly in developing countries.

Climate change will also affect the developed countries. For instance, due to the increasing temperature the UK is becoming more preferable for grape producers and some of the French grape producers began to buy lands in the UK to produce grape in this country instead of France assuming that the production will be more profitable and the quality will be higher in the UK. [8]

As an example, it is estimated that the UAE’s mangrove fields [9]  are amongst the most vulnerable areas to suffer from the climate change.

 However the impact on Oman which is the main agricultural country in the region will be affected more than the other countries. Oman is the closest food supplier of the food markets in the UAE.

 

Tourism

Tourism is very much related to the touristic comfort provided to the travelers. It is estimated that the increase in temperature is negatively correlated to number of tourist coming to the country. Tourists are searching places where they feel themselves comfortable temperature wise. Therefore, high temperature areas may lose tourists to the climatically advantageous areas.

This might cause a concern for the UAE where the summer temperature is rather high. It should be expected that the number of tourists coming in the hot season will further be reduced and the vice versa will take place during the cold months.

 

Biodiversity

According to the reports of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) slight increase in the ambient temperature is causing considerable extinction of species and the rate of extinction is increasing. This is a very negative outcome for the sustainability of biodiversity for future generations. The situation is causing a grave concern especially in biologically high sensitive areas such as the desert ecology. It is known that the biodiversity in the desert regions in under a heavy pressure. Increasing temperature will make the fight against loss of biodiversity even more difficult. [10]

The UAE is an arid region and most of the land is in desert characteristics. Therefore, the biodiversity in the UAE will be more strained in future if global warming continues.

 

Land use and urban planning and urban management

Global warming and climate change will especially hit the urban areas and the management of urban areas, towns and municipalities will be more cumbersome since most of the linear infrastructures (such as transportation, electricity, water, waste water,  sewage and drainage) are constructed according the normal conditions. As a result of the changing pattern of precipitation the drainage systems in the cities and on the highways will be vulnerable to excess water flooding, inundation and halting the transportation on the roads, streets, highways and railways.

The temperature increase will also create more demand for cooling electricity and hence increasing the carbon footprint.  [11]

The UAE is competing with Qatar to be number one country producing carbon footprint on per capita bases. Although some precautions are being taken by the Government of the UAE still more is needed to combat with carbon footprint issue. The following is quoted from Raouf: [12] “Ecological Footprint can be a good indicator for us to understand the severity of these problems. According to the WWF/Ecological Footprint report Our Living Planet, which covers 150 countries around the world, the UAE has the largest footprint in the world, i.e. people in the UAE are placing the most stress per capita on the planet. Compared to the world average Total Ecological Footprint (TEF) of 1.8 global ha/person, the TEF for the UAE was 11.9 global ha/person (hectares/person). Kuwait and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia also have very large footprints — 7.6 and 4.6 global ha/person respectively.”

 

Remedies taken

Although the remedies taken against the climate change are far from being satisfactory the following should be stated as the positive examples:

1.      The UAE government has declared that all the attempts regarding to reduce the carbon footprint will be supported.

2.      Recently ,Abu Dhabi has announced first action plan for the reduction of GHGs.

3.      Dubai government has adopted similar measures.

4.      Masdar City in Abu Dhabi: The first initiative in the World to create a zero pollution city example.

5.      Alternative energy: In both Abu Dhabi and in Dubai large scale investments are now operational to produce solar energy and some new ones are to come.

6.      Nuclear energy: The first nuclear power plant will be operational in 2017.

Besides these, the public opinion polls carried out in the Arab countries indicate that the people are not totally happy with what the governments are doing against carbon footprint but also indicating that the situation is now ripe enough to secure the support of the people to fight against global warming and climate change.

 

Conclusion

It is quite clear that global warming and climate change will also affect the Gulf Region and the UAE. Fighting against global warming and carbon footprint is not a solo piece to be sung in the orchestra. All members of the orchestra should be participating willfully and scholarly in the war against climate change.

 Ironically, the UAE which has the highest per capita carbon release in the World is trying hard to further enhance its attempts to reduce the environmental security risks to be encountered in the near future.

CITED REFERENCES

 

 

1.      Balgis Osman Elasha. UNDP. Regional Bureau for Arab States. Mapping of Climate Change Threats and Human Development Impacts in the Arab Region. Arab Human Development Report. 2010, P. 51.

2.      IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers. An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This summary, approved in detail at IPCC Plenary XXVII (Valencia, Spain, 12-17 November 2007), represents the formally agreed statement of the IPCC concerning key findings and uncertainties contained in the Working Group contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report.

3.      Krchnak. M Karin and others. Putting Nature in the Nexus: Investing in Natural Infrastructure to Advance Water-Energy- Food Security. Bonn2011 Conference: The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus – Solutions for the Green Economy. Background Papers for the Stakeholder Engagement Process. P 8.

4.      Kumetat, D. Climate change in the Persian Gulf – regional security, sustainability strategies and research needs. Paper for the Conference: “Climate Change, Social Stress and Violent Conflict”, Hamburg, 19 & 20.11.2009.

5.       Lelieveld J. and others. Severe ozone air pollution in the Persian Gulf region. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 1393–1406, 2009. www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/1393/2009.  2009.

6.      Mohamed A. Raouf.  Climate Change Threats, Opportunities, and the GCC Countries. The Middle East Institute. Policy Brief. No. 12 April 2008.

7.      Mohamed Abdel Raouf Abdel Hamid. Climate Change in the Arab World: Threats and Responses in Michel, D. and Amit Pandya. (eds)Troubled Waters: Climate Change, Hydropolitics, and Transboundary Resources. 2009. The Henry L. Stimson Center. ISBN: 978-0-9821935-2-5. P 45-100.

8.      Quite Babylon. Meanwhile Dubai’s Palm Island Wait to Drown. http://quietbabylon.com/archives/

9.      Sowers, J. and E. Weinthal. Dubai Initiative. Climate Change Adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa: Challenges and Opportunities Working Paper No. 2. September 2010. Dubai School of Government and Harvard Kennedy School. P. 29.

10.   Tolba, Mostafa K. and Najib W. Saab (eds). Arab Environment: Climate Change. Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development. 2009. P. 159.

11.   WWF. Living Planet Report. 2008. P.46.

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[1] IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers. An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

[2] Arab Environment Climate Change Tolba, Mostafa K. and Najib W. Saab (eds). Arab Environment: Climate Change. Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development. 2009. P. 159.

[3] IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers. An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

[4] It will be useful to prepare a map of the UAE indicating the areas could be occupied by the sea water according to the different scenarios. Such a map is already prepared for Manhattan.

[5] Quite Babylon. Meanwhile Dubai’s Palm Island Wait to Drown. http://quietbabylon.com/archives/

[6] Arab Environment Climate Change Tolba, Mostafa K. and Najib W. Saab (eds). Arab Environment: Climate Change. Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development. 2009. P. 159.

[7] Lelieveld J. and others. Severe ozone air pollution in the Persian Gulf region. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 1393–1406, 2009. www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/1393/2009.  2009.

 

[8] Kumetat, D. Climate change in the Persian Gulf – regional security, sustainability strategies and research needs. Paper for the Conference: “Climate Change, Social Stress and Violent Conflict”, Hamburg, 19 & 20.11.2009.

[9] Balgis Osman Elasha. UNDP. Regional Bureau for Arab States. Mapping of Climate Change Threats and Human Development Impacts in the Arab Region. Arab Human Development Report. 2010, P. 51.

[10] Krchnak. M Karin and others. Putting Nature in the Nexus: Investing in Natural Infrastructure to Advance Water-Energy- Food Security. Bonn2011 Conference: The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus – Solutions for the Green Economy. Background Papers for the Stakeholder Engagement Process. P 8.

 

[11] WWF. Living Planet Report. 2008. P.46.

[12] Mohamed A. Raouf.  Climate Change Threats, Opportunities, and the GCC Countries. The Middle East Institute. Policy Brief. No. 12 April 2008