OLIGARCHIC AUTOCRACIES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PROF. DR. FIRUZ DEMIR YASAMIS

 

 

February, 2025

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ORCID NO: 0000-0002-8756-1366

 

 

OLIGARCHIC AUTOCRACIES

Abstract

This paper examines the strategies employed by oligarchic and autocratic regimes to maintain their power, as well as the counter-strategies that social opposition can develop against these systems. It details how authoritarian regimes exert control through the media, judiciary, economy, and security forces, analyzing the effectiveness of these strategies through historical examples. The paper evaluates the internal and external factors that may lead to the downfall of autocratic regimes, discussing how economic crises, international pressure, and social movements can weaken authoritarian rule. Finally, the vulnerabilities of authoritarian regimes and election security issues in the context of Turkey are addressed.

Key Words: Strategies of Autocratic Regimes, Counter Measures, Turkiye, Comparative Politics

 

INTRODUCTION

In oligarchic and autocratic societies, leaders increase their repressive power over the population. In contrast, the apathy of defenseless, unarmed, and passive masses helps autocratic leaders become more unchecked, amplifying their social, legal, economic, and political pressures to unbearable levels. In autocratic regimes, the public’s passivity creates a vicious cycle that further intensifies the repression by the rulers. The fear, economic dependency, media control, and systematic pressures keep people silent, which leads autocrats to take bolder steps.

This situation raises several critical questions: How can people be mobilized in an environment of fear and repression? Throughout history, successful popular movements against authoritarian regimes have often emerged at specific moments of crisis. So, what triggers these breaking points? What alternative resistance methods exist? How can defenseless, unarmed populations resist authoritarian leaders? What is the right to resist, and how can it be defined? How effective are methods like civil disobedience, underground organization, or foreign-supported democratization projects? What is the biggest threat to autocrats? Under what conditions do autocrats typically weaken? Could economic crises, elite divisions, external pressures, or internal societal dynamics be decisive? Why is public silence so widespread? Yet, even this is often not enough. What conditions do you think need to be present for the public to overcome their passivity?

The answers to these questions are essential for understanding the limits of authoritarian oppression and developing strategies to overcome it. The root cause is the fear of worsened living conditions, which are already harsh for both the oligarchs and the family members they must sustain. People are afraid to speak out against autocrats because they fear their already poor living conditions will deteriorate further. Oligarchic structures neutralize opposition by binding society with economic dependency. This becomes particularly evident in countries with high income inequality and weak, fragile social states.

Authors use ChatGPT (OpenAI, GPT-4, 2025) to polish language and for stylistic suggestions. Authors confirms that all intellectual content, analysis, and conclusions are their own.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Among general studies on the resilience of authoritarian regimes, Gerschewski, Levitsky, Slater, and Svolik stand out. In his study The Three Pillars of Stability: Legitimation, Repression, and Co-optation in Autocratic Regimes, Gerschewski examines three key mechanisms (Gerschewski, 2013) that allow authoritarian regimes to remain in power: legitimacy, repression, and co-optation (rewarding loyal factions). Levitsky and Way, in Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War, develop the concept of electoral authoritarianism, (Levitsky, 2010) demonstrating how autocratic regimes survive by using democratic mechanisms. Slater, in Ordering Power: Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia, describes (Slater, 2010) how authoritarian regimes in Southeast Asia become strong and long-lasting, with particular emphasis on the role of elite coalitions. Svolik, in The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, analyzes the internal dynamics of authoritarian regimes and how leaders maintain power using statistical and comparative methods. (Svolik, 2010)

Among those studying institutional resilience in authoritarian regimes are Magaloni, Gandhi, and Przeworski. Magaloni, in Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and Its Demise in Mexico, explains how single-party regimes remain in power for long periods and maintain their legitimacy. (Magaloni 2010), Gandhi and Przeworski, in Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats, examine how parliaments and parties in authoritarian regimes act as a "control mechanism.

Regarding media, repression, and propaganda, King and Roberts, as well as Guriev and Treisman, are notable. In How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression, King and Roberts (King, 2013) analyze China's censorship mechanisms, examining how autocratic regimes manipulate media. Guriev and Treisman, in Informational Autocrats, explain how authoritarian regimes remain in power not only through repression but also via media manipulation and propaganda. (Guriev, 2019)

In the context of Turkey, Esen and Gumuscu, Onis, and Turan's studies focus on authoritarian resilience. In Turkey: How the Coup Failed, Esen and Gumuscu explore how Turkey’s authoritarianism process (Esen, 2017) utilizes resilience mechanisms. Onis, in Monopolizing the Center: The AKP and the Uncertain Path of Turkish Democracy, analyzes how the AKP maintains legitimacy through (Onis, 2015) populist policies and economic growth. Turan, in Turkey's Presidential System and Its Impact on the Struggle for Democracy, discusses how Turkey’s transition to a presidential system has enhanced authoritarian resilience. (Turan, 2019)

KEY METHODS EMPLOYED

The primary methods used by autocrats include: creating economic dependency, social welfare programs that make people dependent on the state, controlling public employment, and business sectors to prevent opposition action; creating a climate of fear, spreading fear of job loss, imprisonment, or social exclusion; directing written, visual, and social media to manipulate public perception and eliminate potential resistance before it can form; dividing society and creating social fault lines; creating armed militant groups; polarizing the population to prevent the formation of a united opposition; using the judiciary, legal processes, and law as a weapon; and fully controlling the judiciary to suppress opposition through arbitrary arrests and unlawful decisions. What dynamics need to emerge for the public to break through their wall of fear in autocratic regimes? Economic crises, the loss of legitimacy by autocrats, or external pressures are often seen as crucial triggers.

HISTORICAL EXAMPLES

When determining the conditions to break the public's passivity, both historical examples and contemporary autocratic regimes should be considered. This process can be analyzed under three main headings: individual, societal, and external dynamics.

The first is individual dynamics—overcoming fear and creating alternative hopes. Overcoming extreme poverty and hunger is often essential for individuals to surpass their fears and take action against authoritarian oppression. People are often only willing to act when they feel they have nothing left to lose, as in the case of Mohamed Bouazizi, a university graduate and street vendor in Tunisia, who self-immolated. Alternatively, new sources of hope must arise. If people cannot see what will come after the fall of the authoritarian regime, they will be reluctant to take action, as seen in the failed democratic transformations in Eastern Europe in 1989. Another approach is developing personal security mechanisms. Individuals can form solidarity networks and underground organizations to avoid feeling at risk.

The second is societal dynamics, where critical moments and the formation of collective awareness may need to be awaited. Overcoming individual fear may only be effective when reinforced by societal dynamics. If the regime loses its economic stability, loyalty to it diminishes. For example, the economic crisis before the 1979 Iranian Revolution played a key role. Internal conflicts within the ruling class can create an opportunity for the public, such as during the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Organized opposition movements can mobilize the population, like the Solidarity Movement in Poland. The reluctance of security forces to confront the public or their sympathy with them can hasten the collapse of authoritarian regimes, as seen in Egypt in 2011 when some soldiers sided with the people.

The third is external factors, such as international pressure and interventions. In some cases, external factors play a significant role. When the economic interests of oligarchs and leaders are threatened, internal pressure may decrease. The power of independent media and the internet can expose the truth, weakening autocratic propaganda. Financial or diplomatic support for opposition movements can increase their chances of success.

AUTHORITARIAN RESILIENCE THEORY

The theory of "Authoritarian Resilience" examines how authoritarian regimes can survive over time instead of collapsing, and how they adapt to become sustainable. This theory gained importance in academic discussions, especially after the Cold War, as authoritarian regimes survived longer than expected. Authoritarian regimes ensure long-term stability through various mechanisms and strategies. Some regimes increase their legitimacy through competitive elections, but these elections are manipulated via media control, repression of opposition, and interventions in the election process. Political processes are controlled through single-party or regime-affiliated parties. The Communist Party in China and United Russia in Russia exemplify this. State resources and public contracts are distributed to loyal elites to secure their loyalty. Social welfare programs that make large parts of the population dependent on the state increase the regime's public support. Economic power is controlled through oligarchs or state-owned companies. The free press is either suppressed or turned into a propaganda tool for the regime. Social media platforms are controlled, internet restrictions are imposed, and public opinion is manipulated by trolls. The security apparatus is kept loyal to the regime, with police and intelligence used to suppress opposition. The legal system is weaponized to suppress opposition. (Nathan, 2003)

Although authoritarian regimes try to survive with various tools, specific factors may weaken their resilience. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the Arab Spring protests in 2011 showed how economic collapses can shake authoritarian regimes. Internal elite conflicts can also undermine the regime’s stability.

STRATEGIES AND TACTICS USED BY AUTOCRATS

It is helpful to systematically outline the strategies and tactics that authoritarian and oligarchic governments use to sustain their power. These strategies can be discussed under political, economic, social, legal, and media control headings. Among the strategies and tactics used by oligarchic powers to maintain their governance, the primary strategy is political in nature. In other words, redefining the legitimacy of political power and neutralizing the opposition is crucial. For this purpose, false legitimacy mechanisms are created. Holding elections to give a façade of "democracy," while manipulating the electoral system (such as barrier systems, vote manipulation, voter intimidation, etc.), is one such tactic. Another tactic is dividing and fragmenting the opposition. Creating artificial divisions among opposition parties and supporting certain parties to form a controlled opposition is another common method. Buying loyalty with state resources and money is another tactic used by oligarchs. This strategy aims to build a loyal base of supporters by directing public resources to allies and party members. Establishing a bureaucratic oligarchy is another frequently used method. Filling the public bureaucracy with loyalists to prevent opposition from gaining a foothold in the state is one such tactic. Finally, imposing a state of emergency and crisis management within society is often necessary. By creating constant security threats or war scenarios, the public is pressured.

As for economic strategies, the aim is to create dependency and monopolize resources. Economic oligarchies are established in this context. For example, allocating state contracts only to allied companies in order to concentrate economic power in a particular elite group. Another tactic is the use of public resources for personal gain, such as structuring the tax system to protect the rich and the government, and increasing public debt to mortgage future generations. Increasing the economic dependency of the population is another tactic, such as using low wages, high inflation, and loans to make people financially dependent on the state. Privatization and wealth transfers are also key tactics of autocratic regimes. By transferring public assets to allies, the collective economic power of the public is undermined. The final economic strategy is creating and exploiting artificial crises. By controlling economic crises, the government ensures that society remains in constant uncertainty, thereby forcing people to accept the government as the "only solution."

Social strategies can be summarized briefly as "Divide, Polarize, Direct." This approach involves dividing the public based on identity factors such as sect, ethnicity, and ideology, preventing them from uniting. Creating internal and external enemies to divert public attention from the regime's failures is one of the tactics used. Using educational (from preschool to higher education) and religious institutions to mold the public into subservience to the regime is another common tactic. Controlling or suppressing unions, civil society organizations, and student movements is also an important method.

Among the legal strategies used, the most prominent is weaponizing the judiciary. This includes appointing judges and prosecutors loyal to the regime, prosecuting opponents on charges of corruption, espionage, and terrorism, and frequently changing laws to create legal uncertainty and suppress the opposition. Administrative decisions that bypass judicial processes are another tactic used to silence opponents.

The final method is controlling information and the information society through the media, creating alternative realities. To achieve this, independent media outlets are either shut down or transferred to pro-government businessmen, turning them into propaganda tools. Internet censorship, "deepfake" productions, social media laws, and troll armies are tactics used to block alternative information flows. Constantly reinforcing themes of victory, growth, external enemies, and national pride is another tactic to strengthen loyalty to the regime. On the other hand, smear campaigns, defamation, and fake news are used to target and discredit the opposition.

COMPARATIVE POLITICS: ANALYZING STRATEGIES AND TACTICS

A comparative analysis based on historical and contemporary examples can be helpful in understanding how authoritarian regimes survive and what weaknesses lead to their downfall. In this context, authoritarian regimes can be divided into five categories: Fully established autocracies (North Korea, Turkmenistan), soft autocracies (Russia, Hungary, Turkey), collapsing or transitioning autocracies (Chile-Pinochet, Romania-Ceaușescu, Arab Spring countries), semi-authoritarian hybrid regimes (Venezuela, Belarus), and democracies undergoing authoritarianization (India, Israel, some Western European countries).

Fully established autocracies share common features such as a completely closed system and absolute control over information. These regimes are characterized by a completely state-dependent economy (resources distributed by the government) and ideological and cultural brainwashing (leader cult). Their weaknesses, however, include over-dependence on external pressures (e.g., North Korea's dependence on China), unsustainable economic isolation, and the potential for a dramatic public eruption during radical discontent, as seen in Romania. These regimes are the hardest to bring down from within, but external factors like economic collapse or foreign intervention can hasten their fall.

Soft autocracies employ strategies such as fake elections and controlled opposition, media and internet control, generating legitimacy through cultural and religious tools, and using the judiciary as a tool for political pressure. Their weaknesses include vulnerability to economic crises (e.g., sanctions after the Russia-Ukraine war), loss of external support (e.g., the EU’s economic pressure on Hungary), and the development of alternative communication channels that are difficult to control (e.g., social media). These regimes are more fragile than hard autocracies because economic and political crises can easily shake public loyalty.

Collapsing or transitioning autocracies often rely on harsh repression mechanisms, police state practices, and using the military and security forces to suppress the public. Their weaknesses include economic collapse and hyperinflation (e.g., Romania's famine and economic downfall), disloyalty within the military and security forces (e.g., Tunisia and Egypt), and the public overcoming fear thresholds (e.g., Ceaușescu's downfall). These regimes are vulnerable to rapid collapse due to public uprisings, economic crises, and military splits.

Semi-authoritarian hybrid regimes face significant challenges in maintaining balance. They often use populist economic policies (subsidies, state aid), survive with external support (e.g., Belarus' dependency on Russia), and implement controlled opposition or democratic openings. Their weaknesses include economic crises and hyperinflation (e.g., Venezuela), excessive corruption within institutions, loss of social trust, and the creation of alternative economic and social networks that bypass the state. These regimes must constantly adapt to delay their collapse, but economic sustainability is often their biggest weak point.

Democracies undergoing authoritarianization experience severe risks and vulnerabilities. To overcome these, they may resort to weakening the judiciary and independent institutions (e.g., Netanyahu’s actions in Israel), changing electoral laws, establishing "elected autocracies," and using cultural and religious nationalism to increase polarization. Their weaknesses include the inability to fully destroy independent institutions, continued resistance from civil society and academia, and international pressure. These regimes may experience rapid authoritarianization, but due to their democratic history and public habits, it may be difficult to fully transform into a totalitarian system.

THE REASONS FOR THE STRENGTH OF AUTOCRATIC REGIMES

Considering the strong state apparatus, financial resources, security forces, and media monopolies that autocratic and oligarchic regimes possess, it can be said that there is a clear imbalance in the struggle. In other words, the repressive mechanisms of autocratic regimes are indeed very powerful, and this power provides a significant advantage against the defenseless and unarmed majority of society. This raises the complex question of how social resistance can be organized and how this imbalance can be overcome.

Autocratic and oligarchic regimes offer massive advantages both economically and in terms of security. With security forces and intelligence agencies, it is possible to suppress opposition by constantly keeping them under surveillance. Social opposition can easily be suffocated through police repression, detentions, and violent interventions. The state's power is an effective tool for using public resources to its advantage, destroying or bringing the opposition into line. Furthermore, economic pressures can be created through loyal capitalist groups. Authoritarian regimes can control public opinion by monopolizing the media, manipulating information to influence large sections of society. Social media and digital platforms have become powerful tools for pacifying the masses.

Given that the vast majority of society is defenseless, unarmed, and unorganized, it becomes incredibly difficult to rise up against the autocratic regime. Under constant pressure and violence, the people struggle to form resistance. Opposition parties and civil society organizations face difficulty organizing in an environment where the state and police forces adopt a policy of intimidation through constant detentions and torture. When a large portion of society is drowning in economic hardships, people focus on surviving day-to-day rather than participating in social movements. Those seeking work for their daily bread may not find the strength to engage in the struggle for social change. Especially if the education level is low and much of the population lacks political consciousness, the possibility of showing societal opposition to the regime decreases. Intellectuals and community leaders are often either silenced or lose their influence, making it even harder to organize the people.

Oligarchic power holders have financial resources, loyal companies, and control over the judiciary, enabling them to arbitrarily arrest and imprison individuals (Atalay and others). Society is so weak and powerless that utopian and romantic solutions are unlikely to be effective. In an environment where oligarchic power has vast resources and repressive mechanisms, organizing society and mounting resistance requires a monumental struggle for power. The weakness and helplessness of society reveals how arduous this struggle is. The oligarchy can arbitrarily use economic, legal, and security resources, significantly limiting any chance for society to resist. At this point, approaches that seem like romantic and utopian solutions may unfortunately be far from realistic. However, I still believe that certain strategies could be effective, though they must be carefully thought out and implemented with precision.

Rather than expecting a massive social revolution or sudden large-scale changes, small yet effective resistances can be organized at the local level. For example, social movements that begin in a neighborhood, a city, or a sector can gradually expand and reach wider segments of society. These movements can make an impact through open-air meetings, creating opposition discourse, and using social media platforms to spread their message.

The harsh living conditions of society often stem from very basic needs that go beyond politics. In this context, offering practical solutions such as economic justice, equitable income distribution, and social state policies could help gain the support of the people. If people see options that make survival easier through these kinds of solutions, this could open the doors to political change. For example, proposing a more egalitarian and sustainable economy could allow society to strongly engage in resistance.

International pressure, such as sanctions and other external mechanisms, can target the vulnerable points of autocratic regimes. Gaining the support of the West and democratic countries, especially finding international solutions against human rights violations and lawlessness, could be a strategy. Sometimes, economic or diplomatic pressure from abroad may destabilize the seemingly firm foundations of a regime.

One of the strongest weapons of autocratic powers is undoubtedly the control over media and communication. However, the widespread availability of social media and its increasing freedom can enable people to access independent information. In this regard, developing a communication strategy based on accurate and transparent information to educate society and counter dark propaganda and manipulation will be important. Local and international collaborations can be established to ensure media and internet freedom.

In conclusion, while romantic solutions may seem improbable in this struggle, a few practical strategies and a process of societal awareness could gradually increase social resistance and lay the groundwork for systematic change. However, all these strategies carry significant risks, and their success will depend on effective organization, strong leadership, and international support.

The current situation in Turkey is indeed very complex and challenging. The disappearance of the middle class and the widespread poverty and hunger among the population signal a significant societal collapse and a deepening of income inequality. Under such conditions, much of the population is already helpless and excluded from the system. The question of what can be done in such a scenario becomes critical.

The most fundamental step is to meet the basic needs necessary for people to sustain their daily lives. This includes urgent and vital requirements such as food, health, and shelter. A large portion of the population, living below the poverty line, cannot meet these needs on their own, making social assistance and solidarity networks vital. These efforts can strengthen local solidarity networks as an alternative to central authority.

For example, social media can be used to organize aid campaigns, local solutions such as food banks, clothing assistance, and even free clinics and health support can be implemented. These kinds of solidarity movements can help people make ends meet while also promoting social trust and unity.

For the people to act collectively, strong leadership and organization are necessary. Under these circumstances, the rise of social movements and the ability of society to exercise its right to defend itself will be significant. Social movements can create platforms for the people to voice their demands and raise their voices against the injustices of the system.

However, these movements should not only focus on economic inequality, but also on broader demands such as social justice, human rights, and equality. Furthermore, these movements must be non-violent and peaceful in order to gain broad public support.

Education is a key tool for raising awareness about social issues, especially in poorer segments of society. If people understand their own power and rights better, they can act more effectively politically and socially. Educational materials, social seminars, and awareness campaigns can be initiated at the local level.

Especially, social media can be utilized for this purpose. Awareness in education can increase the organization and resistance of society. Alternative media channels and local information networks can be established to fight against media manipulation and communication blockades.

Turkey's internal conditions can sometimes be more effectively addressed through international solidarity and pressure. Human rights violations, press freedom restrictions, and election fraud can be brought to the attention of the international public. In this regard, civil society organizations, international human rights groups, and democratic states can pressure Turkey to question the legitimacy of the government.

International collaborations, particularly through economic pressures and trade sanctions, can help limit the oligarchic regime. Such external interactions may also provide support for the impoverished classes in Turkey.

In an environment where large segments of the population are living in poverty and economic insecurity, developing alternative economic models that move beyond the current capitalist system could also be important. Cooperatives, solidarity economies, and community-based production systems could be at the forefront of this.

By reshaping their own production and consumption habits, people could lay the foundation for a more equitable economic distribution. New economic structures that encourage social solidarity in areas like combating unemployment and ensuring food security could improve people's living conditions independent of the oligarchic regime's control.

Large-scale protests and strikes against the power of the oligarchic regime may offer a way for people to express their opposition. However, such movements require careful organization to succeed. These resistance movements should be non-violent and must be launched with strong public support. Additionally, these movements may face opposition from the regime's security forces and violent measures, so the resistance must be highly organized and robust.

Indeed, finding solutions in such a situation is a very complex and challenging phenomenon. Many factors contribute to deepening people's helplessness. Both external pressures and internal structural problems further complicate the situation. Nevertheless, there is always potential for social change and resistance, but it requires deep thought on how to mobilize this potential and strengthen it sustainably.

In conclusion, the steps to be taken for the people living in poverty and helplessness in Turkey may not be easy in the short term, but step by step, the organization, solidarity, and awareness of society can be ensured. Moreover, international support, local solutions, and the rise of social movements could provide hope for the future of society.

FIGHTING AGAINST AUTHORITARIAN AND OLIGARCHIC REGIMES

The critical issues analyzed above are political challenges that need to be addressed in countries governed by autocratic and oligarchic regimes. The strategies that can be developed by the subcomponents of society to overcome these challenges are the subject of this section. Below are the perspectives (vision), self-discipline (mission), strategies, tactics, policies, and action plans that should be used to change authoritarian and oligarchic governments and achieve more liberal and democratic political living conditions.

Economic Pressure and Establishing Alternative Economic Networks: The goal of this approach is to exploit one of the greatest weaknesses of authoritarian regimes: economic crises. Breaking the economic power of the regime and making people's livelihoods independent of the state is a critical method of struggle. Transparency pressures on state contracts, public spending, and corruption mechanisms should be increased. National and international economic boycotts targeting oligarch-owned companies close to the government are crucial. Supporting small businesses, cooperatives, and local producer networks can increase people's economic independence. Foreign companies supporting the authoritarian regime can be named, and campaigns can be organized to halt these investments. The global economic boycott against the Apartheid regime in South Africa accelerated the collapse of the system. Similarly, alternative economic networks and unions during the Pinochet regime in Chile helped the opposition remain strong.

Creating Alternative News Sources Against Media and Information Control: The aim of this approach is to prevent authoritarian regimes from controlling the flow of information, thus hindering society's awareness and organization. Effective alternatives to media monopolies should be created. In this context, independent digital media platforms should be strengthened, and “podcasts,” blogs, and social media networks that avoid the regime's censorship should be developed. VPNs and encrypted communication should be widely used, ensuring the security of the information flow. Sources leaking information from within the regime should be protected, and the regime's corruption and repression should be exposed. Repressive regimes are often built on seriousness and fear; humor and irony can undermine the legitimacy of the regime. In Belarus, the opposition media group Nexta used Telegram to disseminate anti-regime information and organize the public. In Russia, Navalny's YouTube videos exposed Putin's corruption to millions.

Using Strategic Ballot Power Against Elective Autocracies: The goal of this approach is to raise awareness about "elective autocracies" (such as Russia, Hungary, and Turkey) where false elections are common. By organizing the public and ensuring ballot security, election processes can be turned into an effective tool against the regime. In this context, election observers, civil initiatives, and international monitors should be organized. Authoritarian regimes see low voter turnout as an opportunity; therefore, high turnout makes it more difficult for them to engage in fraud. When the regime steals elections, organized protests and civil disobedience can be activated. In Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic's election frauds in 2000 were overturned by mass protests. In Georgia, the Rose Revolution developed in response to rigged elections, resulting in a regime change.

Influencing the Foundations of the Regime: Authoritarian regimes survive on the loyalty of the judiciary, military, and police forces. If these forces can be affected or their loyalty shaken, the regime's resilience can be weakened. Therefore, strategies should be developed to enlighten these structures. Examples of poor governance and corruption should be shared with the public. In 1989, when Ceaușescu's control over the military weakened, the regime collapsed. In 2011, in Tunisia, the security forces' refusal to respond harshly to protests initiated the Arab Spring. In 2024, when control over the Syrian military disappeared, the Assad regime collapsed.

Using International Support and External Pressures: Authoritarian regimes often cannot survive without international external support. Therefore, international powers can be directed to increase financial and diplomatic pressure. In this context, sanctions should be redirected to target oligarchs directly. Awareness campaigns should be conducted against the regime's external propaganda. The opposition should become more visible on the international stage. The South African Apartheid regime was brought down by international economic sanctions. In Venezuela, U.S. sanctions have weakened the economic power of the Maduro government.

When answering the question of how societal resistance can find a way out against the regime, it is crucial to first raise awareness within society and organize social movements. However, for this to happen, the public must be able to act safely. Solidarity networks with civil society and labor movements at the local level can strengthen local resistance. International pressure, particularly economic sanctions and human rights violations, can help weaken the regime. Diplomatic talks with the Western world and democratic countries can provide external support for local opposition. The deepening of the crisis can sometimes lead to an increase in public resistance. At this point, offering strong alternative solutions to economic and social crisis management can combine the hopes of the public with the opposition. However, these crises need to be managed properly; otherwise, the autocratic regime could turn the crisis into an opportunity. The power of social media can be an important platform that could put authoritarian regimes in a difficult position. Particularly with organized citizens and citizen journalism on social media platforms, effective resistance can be developed against state media manipulation.

In conclusion, confronting the enormous power of autocratic regimes is challenging, but with social solidarity, conscious organization, and external support, this imbalance can be overcome. While the challenges of this struggle exist, societal awareness and the power of local movements play a critical role in shaking the regime's pressure mechanisms. In any case, organizing strong resistance from all segments of society is vital.

A multi-faceted and coordinated struggle strategy is required to succeed against authoritarian regimes. Economy, media, elections, security, and international pressure factors must work together. Turning economic crises into opportunities (weakening government-linked companies, increasing people's economic independence) is crucial. Increasing media and communication freedom (independent media outlets, social media strategies) is essential. Ensuring ballot security (mass election movements, protests) is vital. Increasing international pressure (sanctions, international diplomatic efforts) can yield positive results. By combining these strategies, it may be possible to reduce the sustainability of authoritarian regimes and accelerate the democratization process.

STRETEGIES FOR TURKEY

The ongoing severe economic crisis in Turkey is one of the biggest weaknesses of the authoritarian system. Authoritarian regimes can suppress a large portion of the population as long as they maintain economic stability. However, when the economic crisis deepens and the supportive capital groups are also harmed, the sustainability of the regime decreases. Exposing oligarchs who profit from state contracts, subjecting them to national and international sanctions, establishing alternative economic solidarity networks (such as cooperatives and independent financial systems), documenting corruption, and bringing it to international legal mechanisms are important measures in this context. As economic collapse accelerates, internal conflicts within the regime increase, and public backlash rises.

Despite being an authoritarian regime, Turkey is still considered a form of electoral autocracy. Although elections are not fully fair, they cause significant harm to the regime through widespread public reaction. A broad civil initiative should be created for ballot security on election day. The strategic use of elections against the authoritarian central government should be defined. If election pressure increases, the regime may make more mistakes and lose its legitimacy.

The regime’s greatest strength lies in the police, gendarmerie, and intelligence units. However, there are crises and discomforts within these structures as well. Retired military officers and former state bureaucrats are particularly dissatisfied with the authoritarian government. Communication channels with the discontented groups within the security bureaucracy should be developed. The regime’s ties with the police and military should be weakened by highlighting their economic troubles. The army’s position should be carefully analyzed. As divisions within the state increase, the repressive apparatus will weaken.

The regime controls the media and directs the flow of information. However, social media remains one of the most powerful forces. New digital news platforms should be created to break the media monopoly of the regime. VPNs, encrypted messaging, and alternative communication networks should be promoted. Social awareness should be raised through humor and irony against the regime’s propaganda language. As the control over information weakens, the effectiveness of propaganda will decrease.

Human rights violations and corruption should be brought to international attention more forcefully. The EU and the US should increase their pressure. The connection between democratic opposition movements in Turkey and international democratic movements should be strengthened. As external support decreases, vulnerability will increase.

ELECTION SECURITY AND ELECTION PREPARATION

It is essential to address the issue of authoritarian and oligarchic regimes manipulating elections. Preventive measures should be taken against dangers such as silencing the opposition before elections, conducting one-sided propaganda through state television and pro-government media, using the state budget for election campaigns, offering state aid in exchange for votes, imprisoning opposition leaders, preventing their participation in elections, vetoing candidates through the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK), and influencing ballot committees. In this context, the training of individuals assigned to polling stations should be increased. Election results should be recorded through alternative channels before the YSK announces them. Citizen journalism should be encouraged, and a network documenting irregularities at polling stations should be established. Precautions should be taken against electricity and internet disruptions on election day. In addition, real-time verification systems should be created to combat disinformation on social media. Alternative data sources should be used to counter Anatolian Agency’s (AA) election night manipulation. Independent observers and international organizations should cooperate on election day.

On election day, measures should be taken against irregularities at polling stations (such as lost votes, incorrect counting, and pressure on polling staff). In this context, the possibility of fraudulent voting by fake voters, especially in critical areas with mobile voters, should be considered. Manipulation of election results through AA should not be overlooked. Voter movements in critical areas should be monitored. Large-scale analyses of voter registrations should be conducted to identify fake voters. Independent observers and data control mechanisms should be established to prevent manipulation of overseas votes.

After the election, attempts to invalidate objections made through YSK and the judiciary will be seen. As in the 2019 Istanbul example, attempts to annul victories could also occur. There will be harsh interventions against post-election protests. A rapid mobilization network should be established for mass protests when election results are announced. In case of opposition victory, international pressure mechanisms should be created to prevent the regime from ignoring the election results. A legal support network should be created against potential police repression after the election.

In summary, if the authoritarian regime manipulates the elections, public trust will be completely lost, and the autocratic system will become further entrenched. Therefore, election security should be considered not only on election day but also throughout the pre- and post-election processes. A strong alternative media strategy should be created to balance the information flow and counter AA and state propaganda. Public reactions should be organized, and international support should be sought to preserve the legitimacy of the post-election process.

EVALUATION AND CONCLUSION

Oligarchic and autocratic governments employ strategies such as media control, economic dependence, judicial pressure, and using security forces in service of the authoritarian regime to maintain their power. However, historical examples show that factors like economic crises, divisions within the regime, and international pressure weaken the stability of autocratic governments. For social opposition to succeed, alternative solidarity networks that increase economic independence should be established, independent news sources should be promoted against media monopolies, and election security should be prioritized.

In the context of Turkey, one of the biggest weaknesses of the current authoritarian government is the deepening economic crisis. This crisis can cause cracks within the ruling bloc and increase social dissatisfaction. Election processes remain an important field of struggle even within an autocratic system. However, the role of civil initiatives and international observers will be critical for ensuring election security. In conclusion, the sustainability of authoritarian regimes is not limitless, and they can be weakened through social awareness, international pressure, and alternative opposition strategies.

 

REFERENCES

Esen, B., & Gümüşçü, S. (2017). "Turkey: How the Coup Failed." Journal of Democracy, 28(1), 59-73.

Gandhi, J., & Przeworski, A. (2007). "Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats." Comparative Political Studies, 40(11), 1279-1301.

Gerschewski, J. (2013). "The Three Pillars of Stability: Legitimation, Repression, and Co-optation in Autocratic Regimes." Democratization, 20(1), 13-38.

Guriev, S. (2019) and friend. "Informational Autocrats." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4), 100-127.

Kavasoglu, B. (2012) “Opposition Parties and Elite Co-optation in Electoral Autocracie.” V-Dem Working Paper 120. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3841392 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3841392

Kim, W. (2024) and friends. “Strategies of Political Control and Regime Survival in Autocracies”. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5064279 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5064279

King, G. (2013) and friends. "How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression." American Political Science Review, 107(2), 326-343.

Levitsky, S. (2010) and friend. “Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War.” Cambridge University Press. ISBN-10: ‎ 0521709156

Magaloni, B. (2006). “Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and Its Demise in Mexico.” Cambridge University Press. ISBN 10: 0521736595

Magaloni, B. (2013) an friends. “Autocracies of the World, 1950-2012”. Stanford University. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4346003 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4346003

Nathan, A.J. (2003). “Authoritarian Resilience”. Journal od Democracy. (1):6-17. DOI:10.1353/jod.2003.0019

Öniş, Z. (2015). "Monopolizing the Center: The AKP and the Uncertain Path of Turkish Democracy." Democracy, 26(1), 12-22.

Przeworski, A. (2022). “Models of Authoritarian Regimes: A Critique”. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4033720 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4033720

Shirikov, A. (2023). “Fake News for All: How Citizens Discern Disinformation in Autocracies”. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3944011 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3944011

Slater, D. (2010). Ordering Power: Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 10: 0521584019

Svolik, M. W. (2012). The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge University Press. Online ISBN: 9781139176040. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139176040

Turan, I. (2019). "Turkey's Presidential System and Its Impact on the Struggle for Democracy." South European Society and Politics, 24(3), 333-359.

Zavadskaya, M. (2013) and friend. “Values, Repression, and Subversion: Incumbent Defeat in Competitive Autocracies”. APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper, American Political Science Association 2013 Annual Meeting. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=23013525