THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE
CHANGE, URBAN RESILIENCE AND URBAN LINEAR INFRASTRUCTURES
Prof. Dr. Firuz Demir Yasamis [1]
ABSTRACT
This article focuses on the relationship between the
effects of global climate change and the resilience capacity of cities against
these changes. The increasing threat of climate change significantly impacts
urban areas and poses various challenges for city administrations. In this
context, the concept of urban resilience has become a crucial key to
understanding how cities can be strengthened in terms of resilience,
adaptation, and sustainability. The article also explores how urban linear
infrastructures, such as critical systems for water management, energy supply,
and transportation, can be made more resilient to extreme weather events and
other adverse effects caused by climate change. Urban linear infrastructures
play a significant role in achieving sustainable development goals and assist
urban areas in adapting to environmental changes. By emphasizing the importance
of developing strategies to enhance urban resilience and strengthen urban
linear infrastructures, this article proposes a comprehensive approach to
addressing climate change. This framework can provide guidance for urban
planners, local governments, and policymakers, contributing to more effective
preparation of urban areas for future climate change risks.
Keywords: Global
warming, climate change, urban resilience, urban linear infrastructure,
sustainable development, adaptation, water management, energy supply, public
transportation, environmental change.
INTRODUCTION
The sections quoted below from the Climate Change
Synthesis Report published by the IPCC [1] in
2023 clearly illustrate the significance of the issue:
"Human activities, primarily through greenhouse
gas emissions, have unequivocally caused global warming, raising the global
surface temperature by 1.1°C in 2011-2020 compared to 1850-1900. Unsustainable
energy use, land use and land-use change, along with historical contributions
from lifestyle choices, consumption, and production patterns across regions,
countries, and individuals, have continued to drive the rise in global
greenhouse gas emissions... Widespread and rapid changes have occurred in the
atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere [2],
and biosphere. Human-induced climate change is already affecting many extreme
weather and climate events across all regions of the world. This has led to
widespread adverse impacts on nature and people, resulting in associated losses
and damages. Historically, vulnerable communities that have contributed the
least to current climate change are disproportionately affected...
Adaptation planning and implementation have advanced
across sectors and regions, with documented benefits and varying effectiveness.
Despite progress, adaptation gaps exist and will continue to grow at current
implementation rates. In some ecosystems and regions, both hard and soft limits
to adaptation have been reached. Maladaptation is occurring in certain sectors
and regions. Global financial flows for adaptation remain insufficient,
particularly in developing countries, limiting the implementation of adaptation
options...
Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions will lead to further
global warming, and under the considered scenarios and modeled approaches, the
best estimate is that a 1.5°C threshold [3] will
be reached in the near term. Every increment of global warming will intensify
multiple and concurrent hazards. Deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions could lead to a noticeable slowdown in global warming
within approximately twenty years and detectable changes in atmospheric
composition within a few years...
For any future level of warming, most climate-related
risks will be higher than those assessed in AR5, and projected long-term
impacts will be several times greater than those currently observed. The risks,
projected adverse impacts, and associated losses and damages from climate
change will escalate with each additional increment of global warming. Climate
and non-climate risks will increasingly interact, creating complex and
cascading risks that are difficult to manage...
Climate change is a threat to human well-being and
planetary health. There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a
livable and sustainable future for all... Increasing international cooperation,
including enhanced financial resource access for particularly vulnerable
regions, sectors, and groups, as well as inclusive governance and coordinated
policies, is essential. The choices and actions implemented in this decade will
have impacts lasting for thousands of years." (IPCC, Climate Change Synthesis
Report, 2023)
DEFINITION OF THE CONCEPT OF URBAN RESILIENCE
My first study on urban linear infrastructures was
conducted as part of an OECD consultancy project. [4] Due
to my consultancy work for the OECD, I examined and analyzed the linear
infrastructures of Barcelona and Ankara. I presented the results of my study to
the OECD in two reports. My first observation in this study, conducted in 1989,
was that urban linear infrastructures were simultaneously experiencing both
insufficiency and aging phenomena. While the population was rapidly increasing
and new, advanced infrastructures were needed, the existing infrastructures
were suffering from inefficiency and declining effectiveness for various
reasons.
In the following years, the world, including Turkey,
began to encounter the phenomenon of global warming and its resulting climate
change. The first international measure against global warming came with the
"United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" held in Rio
de Janeiro in 1992. This agreement was followed by the "Kyoto
Protocol" (1997), which aimed to limit greenhouse gas emissions to a
specific level between 2005 and 2012. The third significant step was the Paris
Agreement signed in 2015. This agreement regulates the obligation of all
countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to an
irreversible threshold of +1.5°C. Accordingly, countries were required to
determine their national obligations in this regard and report them to the
Secretariat. International negotiations on climate change continue through the
annual Conferences of the Parties.
The term "urban resilience" refers to the
ability of a city or urban area to withstand and cope with various pressures
(natural disasters, climate disasters, economic shocks, health crises, etc.).
Urban resilience is a broad concept encompassing a city's sustainability,
adaptability, and recovery capabilities, including the following components:
- Durability: Urban resilience refers to the durability of
physical infrastructure and systems. Cities must strengthen and make their
infrastructure resilient to natural disasters, climate change, and other
potential risks.
- Flexibility: Cities must demonstrate flexibility against
various shocks. Flexibility in planning and infrastructure design refers
to the ability to quickly and effectively adapt to changing conditions.
- Diversity: Urban resilience promotes diversity across
various sectors, income groups, and communities. This ensures that
different segments and residents of a city are resilient to various risks.
- Governance and Cooperation:
Urban resilience requires effective governance and stakeholder
collaboration. City administrations must establish effective cooperation
between local governments, the private sector, civil society, and local
communities.
- Social Equity: Resilience includes policies and practices that
serve all segments of society fairly and prioritize disadvantaged groups
in crisis situations.
- Community Participation:
Urban resilience encourages the participation of local communities and
residents. The ability of communities to engage in decisions that affect
them can enhance resilience.
The goal of urban resilience is not only for cities to
endure adverse events but also to learn from these events and develop in a more
durable, sustainable, and socially just manner. Urban resilience is the
capacity of a city to be prepared for, adapt to, and sustain its functions in
the face of various environmental, social, and economic challenges. The United
Nations defines urban resilience as "the ability of an urban system to
withstand shocks and quickly return to normal functioning."
It can be said that the concept of resilience is
closely related to the concept of sustainability in terms of shared principles
and approaches. Urban resilience consists of three fundamental components:
- Preparation: A city's preparedness for shocks includes
efforts to prevent them, assess their potential impacts, and plan
responses in the event of a shock.
- Adaptation: A city's ability to adapt to change includes
its capacity to adjust to evolving environmental, social, and economic
conditions.
- Recovery: A city's post-shock recovery involves repairing
damaged infrastructure and services and restoring normal operations
Urban resilience is becoming increasingly important
for cities to be resilient and sustainable in a changing world. Challenges such
as climate change, population growth, and economic inequality are putting
cities at greater risk. [5] Various
measures can be taken to enhance urban resilience. These include the following:
- Building more resilient infrastructure: This involves constructing
earthquake-resistant buildings, flood-resistant roads and bridges, and
flexible energy grids.
- Promoting social cohesion: This involves developing policies that
meet the needs of diverse communities and distribute resources equitably.
- Adapting to climate change: This involves reducing greenhouse gas
emissions and developing adaptation plans that make cities more resilient
to the impacts of climate change.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE
CHANGE, AND URBAN RESILIENCE
The relationship between global warming, climate
change, and urban resilience helps us understand how cities and urban areas
respond to and adapt to the impacts of climate change:
- Resilience of Physical Infrastructure:
Global warming and climate change may expose cities to more frequent and
severe natural disasters, especially events like temperature increases,
extreme rainfall, floods, droughts, and storms. Urban resilience involves
making cities' physical infrastructure resilient to these changing
conditions, strengthening water and energy systems, and preparing for
disasters.
- Strategies for Addressing Climate Change: Urban resilience includes strategies for addressing the impacts
of climate change. Cities can adapt to climate change by adopting policies
and practices such as sustainable urban planning, green infrastructure
projects, energy efficiency measures, disaster management plans, and water
resource management.
- Community Preparedness: Urban resilience also
includes the ability of city residents and communities to cope with
climate change. Awareness-raising, education, and community engagement
ensure that urban populations are prepared for the impacts of climate
change.
- Development of Green Infrastructure:
Resilience against global warming and climate change includes the
development of green infrastructure. This involves the preservation and
expansion of green spaces in urban areas, tree planting, and the creation
of water storage areas. Green infrastructure can also help cities become
more resilient in terms of water management and temperature regulation.
- Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy Use:
Urban resilience strategies also include increasing energy efficiency and
using clean energy sources. Strengthening energy supply in cities can help
make them more resilient to the effects of climate change.
For these reasons, adopting urban resilience
strategies in the fight against global warming and climate change can
contribute to preparing cities for a sustainable and more resilient future.
Global warming and climate change are key factors
affecting urban resilience. The impacts of climate change are threatening
cities in various ways, such as more frequent and severe extreme weather
events, rising sea levels, and the spread of climate-sensitive diseases.
- More Frequent and Severe Extreme Weather Events: Global warming is causing heatwaves, hurricanes, floods,
droughts, and other extreme weather events to become more frequent and
severe. These events can lead to loss of life and property, infrastructure
damage, and economic losses in cities. [6]
- Rising Sea Levels: Climate change is
causing sea levels to rise, which exposes coastal cities and islands to
flooding, erosion, and other risks.
- Spread of Climate-Sensitive Diseases:
Climate change is contributing to the spread of climate-sensitive
diseases, posing a threat to public health in cities. [7]
To increase urban resilience, cities must be prepared
for and adapt to the effects of climate change. This function includes various
measures, such as building more resilient infrastructure, promoting social
cohesion, and developing adaptation plans for climate change
MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF NATURAL AND CLIMATE RELATED
DISASTERS
Before addressing the effects of disasters (whether
climatic or natural), it is important to look at their negative impacts on the
macroeconomic conditions of countries. Natural disaster events, such as the
massive earthquakes on February 6, 2023, in Turkey, which caused the deaths of
over 50,000 people and the destruction of 11 provinces, have enormous impacts
on national economies. These effects can vary depending on the country's or
region's economic structure, level of preparedness, and the severity of the
disaster. The primary impact is economic loss. These losses lead to a decline
in the production of goods and services, unemployment, and economic
contraction. Disasters such as droughts, floods, and storms have devastated
agricultural lands and adversely affected agricultural production. As a result,
food prices have risen, and uncertainties in agricultural production and
consumption balances have emerged. Disasters have also affected energy
production facilities and energy transmission lines, damaging energy production
and distribution systems and negatively impacting economic activities.
Disasters place a heavy financial burden on insurance companies, forcing them
to make large compensation payments and increase insurance premiums. In tourist
areas (particularly in Hatay), disasters have caused infrastructure damage,
wiping out tourism. The adverse impact of disasters on foreign trade is another
issue worth examining. Disasters have impacted the labor market, leading to job
losses and an increase in unemployment rates. After disasters, governments have
had to make large expenditures for rescue and reconstruction efforts. For
example, the cost of building 650,000 new houses. In this situation, public
spending and internal and external debt are inevitably increased. Lastly,
disasters have adversely affected human health and education. Many hospitals
and healthcare institutions have been destroyed.
Humberto Lopez, the World Bank's Country Director for
Turkey, stated during his speech at the 9th Sustainable Finance Forum: “The
cost of making homes resilient in Turkey, alongside the climate crisis, exceeds
1 trillion dollars.” [8] Regarding
the issue of strengthening existing homes in Turkey, Lopez said, “When we
consulted with our Strategy Office, we calculated that rebuilding would cost 81
billion dollars, and combined with economic losses, the total cost would exceed
100 billion dollars.” He further mentioned, “This is more than 10% of Turkey's
GDP. We are talking about a really big number.” Lopez also mentioned that the
cost of making existing homes resilient is approximately 465 billion dollars
and continued, “In recent years, Turkey has broken records in extreme heat
events. About 20 years ago, there were around 200 extreme weather events in
Turkey. This figure was found to have risen to 1,000 in recent years. What is
the cost of adapting to climate change? The cost of mitigating climate change
is expected to exceed 600 billion dollars in Turkey. That means 100 billion
dollars for earthquakes, 500 billion dollars for strengthening homes and
buildings, and with climate change, it exceeds 1 trillion dollars. This is 100%
of the country's GDP. The total credit provided by the World Bank Group
globally is 168 billion dollars. After the February 6 earthquake, we announced
a 1-billion-dollar program.”
FINANCIAL EFFECTS OF NATURAL AND CLIMATE RELATED
DISASTERS
It is clear that local governments play a crucial role
in making both earthquake and climate change resilience measures effective.
Limiting greenhouse gas emissions within city borders is one of the foremost
issues. The number of countries developing policies and action plans to address
global warming has increased significantly. These plans, which foresee
“decarbonization,” aim to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases from cities.
The measures to be taken vary from switching to clean fuels in public transportation
to transitioning to district heating systems. The cost of such investments is
immense. Humberto Lopez, the World Bank’s Country Director for Turkey, stated
that Turkey will need an investment of 640 billion dollars to reach its
net-zero emissions target by 2053. [9]
It is also known that the share of local governments
in this total amount will be extremely high. In this context, local
participation and action are constrained. Local political preferences may not
always align with creating climate-resilient cities. Local-level adaptation,
particularly in small municipalities, may conflict with the political
priorities and sensitivities of elected local representatives. Most local
decisions are made according to the expectations of their voters, and local
representatives tend to focus on short-term actions rather than long-term
adaptation solutions. For example, mayors may want to expand cities by
constructing mass housing and covering land to increase municipal revenue, even
in cities already prone to flooding. These decisions, which reduce resilience,
can be partially explained by the dilemma between short-term election cycles
and the long-term effects of adaptation measures. The fact that local
decision-makers' individual interests regarding climate change are often not sufficiently
aligned with the necessary adaptation measures leads to the perception that
climate issues should be addressed only at the national level. Improperly
designed national incentives can lead local governments to excessively rely on
national governments for adaptation investments. While local governments can
invest in adaptation measures to limit damages caused by climate events,
post-disaster damages are typically covered by national institutions, thus
discouraging local governments from making preemptive investments.
The development of technical knowledge and expertise
regarding climate change adaptation can be very costly for most local
governments. With the increasing frequency and intensity of climate variability
and extreme conditions, most local governments need new and innovative
adaptation knowledge and capacity that go beyond the current resources. Local
governments often lack the technical expertise to conduct climate-related
modeling. This technical capacity is expensive and is therefore generally
developed and shared centrally at the national level. The design and
implementation of adaptation solutions are often one-off actions, which do not
justify the development of local skills, particularly in small municipalities.
As a result, local governments do not invest in training personnel at the
national or regional level to develop these technical skills.
If we consider the 640-billion-dollar figure mentioned
by Lopez, it becomes clear that this amount is about 50% higher than Turkey’s
2024 budget. Turkey’s 2024 budget is 11.5 trillion dollars. When calculated at
the current exchange rate, 640 billion dollars is approximately 18.5 trillion liras.
Given these realities, it can be concluded that local
governments have limited capacity to create urban resilience and that the
responsibility lies primarily with the central government. It is also evident
that even the central government will struggle to meet the 2053 target.
THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON
URBAN RESILIENCE
Global warming and climate change expose urban areas
to a range of natural disasters, extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and
other effects of climate change. This situation leads to a variety of factors
that affect urban resilience.
- Frequency and Intensity of Natural Disasters: Climate change can expose cities to more frequent and intense
natural disasters. Events such as temperature increases, heavy rainfall,
floods, droughts, storms, and hurricanes can pose greater risks to urban
areas. This situation can negatively affect urban infrastructure,
buildings, and communities, weakening their resilience.
- More Frequent and Intense Extreme Weather Events: Global warming is causing heatwaves, hurricanes, floods,
droughts, and other extreme weather events to become more frequent and
severe. These events can result in loss of life and property, damage to
infrastructure, and economic losses in cities. For example, the extreme
heatwave that struck Europe in 2022 caused 15,000 deaths in France and led
to a loss of 15 billion euros for the French economy.
- Water Resource Management:
Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns can affect water
resources. Cities may struggle with water infrastructure systems such as
water supply, wastewater management, and flood control. Urban resilience
involves the ability to effectively manage water resources.
- Temperature Increase and Health Effects: High
temperatures can lead to health problems in urban areas. This situation
can affect urban resilience, posing risks, particularly to more vulnerable
groups such as the elderly and low-income communities. Cities must be
prepared for heatwaves and their health impacts.
- Energy Demand and Supply Security:
Rising temperatures can increase energy demand. Cities must ensure the
security of energy supply by making their energy infrastructure
sustainable and resilient. The use of clean energy and energy efficiency
are important strategies in this regard.
- Sea Level Rise and Coastal Areas:
Global warming can cause rising sea levels, leading to erosion and
saltwater flooding in coastal areas. Urban resilience should include
strengthening infrastructure in coastal areas and adapting to changes in
sea levels. Climate change is causing sea levels to rise, exposing coastal
cities and islands to floods, erosion, and other risks.
- Spread of Climate-Sensitive Diseases:
Climate change is causing the spread of climate-sensitive diseases, which
poses a public health threat in cities. For example, the extreme heatwave
in Texas in 2023 caused thousands of people to contract diseases such as
malaria and dehydration.
- Community Preparedness and Awareness:
Dealing with global warming and climate change depends on the preparedness
and awareness levels of communities. Urban resilience strategies should
include raising awareness among city residents about the effects of
climate change and encouraging participation in emergency plans.
For these reasons, it is crucial for cities to adopt
urban resilience strategies to strengthen their capacity to cope with global
warming and climate change.
The impacts of global warming and climate change
reduce urban resilience in the following ways:
- Preparedness: Cities face more challenges in planning and
allocating resources to be prepared for risks such as extreme weather
events, rising sea levels, and the spread of climate-sensitive diseases.
- Adaptation: Cities face greater challenges in allocating
more resources to restructure their infrastructure and services to adapt
to the effects of climate change.
- Recovery: Cities face more challenges in allocating time
and resources to recover from the effects of extreme weather events and
other climate change impacts.
STRATEGIES FOR INCREASING URBAN RESILIENCE
There are several strategies that cities can adopt to
increase urban resilience. These strategies aim to enhance the ability of
cities to withstand and adapt to natural disasters, climate change, health
crises, and other stress factors.
- Sustainable Urban Planning:
Cities should focus on environmental factors such as increasing green
spaces, enhancing energy efficiency, and managing water resources
effectively by adopting sustainable urban planning principles.[10]
- Development of Green Infrastructure:
Green infrastructure includes the use of natural water purification
systems, parks, tree planting, and other natural features. These measures
can make cities more resilient to flooding, extreme temperatures, and
other environmental stresses.
- Strengthening Infrastructure:
Building flood-resistant roads and bridges, earthquake-resistant
buildings, and flexible energy grids is essential for increasing
resilience.
- Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy:
Cities can strengthen their energy systems by increasing energy efficiency
and transitioning to clean energy sources. This strategy can reduce energy
demand and improve energy security.
- Disaster Management and Emergency Planning: Cities should create effective disaster management plans to be
prepared for emergencies. Emergency planning should include measures such
as providing the public with accurate information and determining
evacuation routes.
- Water and Waste Management:
Effective water resource management can increase resilience to water
scarcity, flooding, and other water-related issues. Waste management
strategies can also reduce environmental impacts.
- Public Participation and Awareness:
Raising awareness among city residents about climate change and natural
disaster risks, as well as encouraging their participation, can enhance
urban resilience. Active community involvement in these processes is
essential.
- Education and Capacity Building:
Organizing training programs for city personnel and community members and
building capacity can enhance their ability to respond quickly and
effectively to crises.
- Innovations and Technology Use: The
use of new technologies and innovations can enable cities to manage crises
more effectively. For example, smart city technologies can help develop
early warning systems and rapid response strategies in various areas.
A combination of these strategies can help cities
enhance their resilience, enabling them to adapt better to changing
environmental conditions. Each of these strategies offers a different approach
to increasing urban resilience. For instance, strengthening infrastructure aims
to make cities more resilient to extreme weather events and natural disasters.
Strategies that promote social cohesion aim to ensure that cities can meet the
needs of diverse communities and provide support for everyone during crises. Climate
change adaptation strategies aim to ensure that cities are better prepared for
and able to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Urban resilience strategies can vary depending on the
size, location, and risks faced by a city. However, some general principles
apply to all cities:
- Risk Assessment: Cities should assess the risks they face and
determine what measures can be taken to reduce these risks.
- Planning: Cities should develop plans to prepare for
potential shocks. These plans should include emergency response,
communication, and recovery efforts.
- Investment: Cities should invest in measures to increase
urban resilience. These investments can be made in strengthening
infrastructure, promoting social cohesion, and adapting to climate change.
Increasing urban resilience is a key way to make
cities safer, fairer, and more sustainable.
URBAN LINEAR INFRASTRUCTURES
The term "urban linear infrastructures" is
typically used in relation to urban planning and infrastructure systems. These
infrastructures include various physical and technical elements that are
essential for the development, sustainability, and livability of a city or
region.
- Roads and Transport Networks:
Urban and intercity roads, streets, bridges, and public transportation
systems play a significant role in urban areas. They are critical for the
daily life of city residents and the functioning of economic activities.
- Water and Sewerage Systems:
Clean water supply, wastewater treatment, and sewage systems are essential
for the healthy and sustainable development of urban areas.
- Energy Infrastructure: The safe and efficient
distribution of electricity, natural gas, and other energy sources is
critical for the continuity of urban life.
- Telecommunication Infrastructure:
Telephone lines, internet access, and other communication infrastructures
are essential for accessing information in today's world.
- Green Spaces and Landscaping:
Parks, gardens, and other green areas within the city not only increase
aesthetic value but also support environmental sustainability.
- Infrastructure Management:
Management processes for effectively planning, constructing, and
maintaining infrastructure systems are crucial for the long-term
sustainability of urban areas.
The integration of these elements can significantly
impact a city’s development, economy, and quality of life. Urban linear
infrastructures must be strategically planned and maintained to allow cities to
grow and adapt to changes.
Urban linear infrastructures are systems and
structures that extend from one point to another and are essential for the
functioning of a city. Without these infrastructures, people and goods cannot
move, cities cannot supply clean water and energy, and wastewater cannot be
treated. These infrastructures become increasingly complex as cities grow and
develop. It is crucial that these infrastructures are sustainable and
resilient, requiring regular maintenance, renewal, and updates. Improving urban
linear infrastructures can help make cities safer, cleaner, and more
sustainable.
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON URBAN
LINEAR INFRASTRUCTURES
Global warming and climate change can have various
impacts on urban linear infrastructures. These impacts play a significant role
in the planning, construction, and sustainability of urban infrastructures:
- Water Resources and Water Management:
Climate change may lead to more intense rainfall, droughts, and changes in
water resources. This can put pressure on water resources and management
systems. Urban linear infrastructures, including water treatment plants,
water distribution systems, and stormwater management systems, must adapt
to the impacts of climate change.
- Flood Risk and Infrastructure Damage:
Increased heavy rainfall can raise the risk of flooding, which may affect
urban infrastructures, especially drainage systems and riverbeds.
Infrastructure damage may require costly repairs and improvements.
- Heatwaves and Energy Consumption:
Rising temperatures and heatwaves can increase energy consumption in urban
areas. The urban heat island effect, in particular, may raise temperatures
in buildings, which could affect energy infrastructure and increase
electricity consumption.
- Infrastructure Resilience:
Climate change also affects the resilience of urban infrastructures.
Increased extreme weather events (hurricanes, storms, floods) can damage
infrastructures. Therefore, resilient construction materials and
infrastructure designs become increasingly important.
- Sea Level Rise: For coastal cities, rising sea levels may cause
flooding and damage coastal infrastructures.
- Pandemics and Health Infrastructure:
Climate change can alter the distribution areas of vectors (e.g.,
mosquitoes), increasing the risk of infectious diseases. This situation
may require health infrastructures to become more effective and flexible.
These factors may guide urban planners, engineers, and
policymakers to create climate-resilient and adaptable urban linear
infrastructures. Sustainable design, energy efficiency, and climate change
mitigation strategies are crucial in this context.
Global warming and climate change impact urban linear
infrastructures in various ways, including the following:
- More frequent and intense extreme weather events: Global warming is causing heatwaves, hurricanes, floods,
droughts, and other extreme weather events to occur more frequently and
intensely. These events can damage urban linear infrastructures and
disrupt their functions. For example, extreme heatwaves can damage power
lines and roads, hurricanes can destroy waterways and sewage systems,
floods can block roads and bridges, and droughts can dry out water and
sewage systems.
- Rising sea levels: Climate change is
causing sea levels to rise, which exposes coastal cities and islands to
flooding, erosion, and other risks. Rising sea levels can damage roads,
waterways, and power lines.
- Spread of climate-sensitive diseases:
Climate change is contributing to the spread of climate-sensitive
diseases. This can lead to public health issues that may disrupt urban
linear infrastructures. For example, increasing temperatures can lead to
heat stress and the spread of diseases such as malaria.
The effects of global warming and climate change on
urban linear infrastructures pose a serious threat to cities. These impacts can
disrupt economic and social functions and threaten public health.
METHODS FOR MEASURING THE EFFECTS OD GLOBAL WARMING
AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON URBAN LINEAR INFRASTRUCTURES
Measuring and evaluating the effects of global warming
and climate change on urban linear infrastructure is a complex process
involving various methods:
- Modeling and Evaluation of Climate Scenarios: Climate models are used to simulate future climate change
scenarios. These models predict various climate variables, such as
temperature changes, rainfall amounts, and sea level rise. These
predictions can be used to understand how urban infrastructure might be
affected. This method involves using computer simulations to predict how
urban linear infrastructures will respond to climate change and assess the
likelihood of damage or disruption to their functions.
- Risk Assessments: Risk analysis and risk
assessment can be used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on urban
infrastructure. This process involves identifying potential hazards (such
as floods, droughts, and heatwaves) and determining their possible
effects.
- Infrastructure Resilience Assessments:
Engineers and infrastructure experts assess the resilience of urban
infrastructure by evaluating how well existing infrastructure can
withstand extreme weather events, flood risks, or other effects of climate
change.
- Water Management Analyses:
Hydrological models can be used to understand the impacts on water
resources and water management. These models simulate potential changes in
rainfall patterns, water levels, and water resources in a virtual
environment.
- Energy Consumption Analyses:
Energy consumption analyses can be performed to evaluate the effects of
high temperatures and heatwaves on energy consumption. This can help
assess the performance of air conditioning systems and other
energy-intensive infrastructure components.
- Health Analyses: Epidemiological analyses can be conducted to
evaluate the health impacts of climate change. These analyses may include
assessing the risk of the spread of infectious diseases, the health
effects of heatwaves, and other similar factors.
- Statistical Analysis: Statistics are used to
measure changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events
that have occurred in the past. This information can be used to predict
the potential impacts of future extreme weather events.
- Observational Studies: The observational
method is used to directly measure how urban linear infrastructures are
exposed to and impacted by climate change. This method can help determine
the extent of damage to infrastructure and how much its functionality has
been disrupted.
The measurement and assessment methods outlined above
provide urban planners, engineers, and policymakers with the information needed
to develop strategies for addressing climate change. These strategies can be
designed to ensure that urban linear infrastructures are resilient and
adaptable to climate change.
INDICATORS USED TO MEASURE THE EFFECTS
Some specific indicators used to measure the effects
of global warming and climate change on urban linear infrastructure are:
- Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events: These indicators are the most commonly used to measure the
effects of global warming and climate change on urban linear
infrastructure. They track the frequency and severity of extreme weather
events such as heatwaves, hurricanes, floods, droughts, and other weather
extremes.
- Sea Level Rise: This indicator is used to measure how global
warming and climate change affect coastal cities and islands.
- Spread of Climate-Sensitive Diseases: This
indicator is used to measure how global warming and climate change impact
human health. Climate change can lead to higher temperatures, which can
increase heat stress and the spread of diseases like malaria.
Measuring the effects of global warming and climate
change on urban linear infrastructure can help cities take the necessary
measures to cope with these impacts.
EXAMPLES OF THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE
CHANGE ON URBAN LINEAR INFRASTRUCTURES WORLDWIDE
Global warming and climate change have caused various
impacts on urban areas around the world:
- Miami, USA – Sea Level Rise:
Coastal cities like Miami are facing rising sea levels, leading to
frequent tidal events and coastal erosion. In Miami, areas have
experienced increased flooding due to heavy rainfall and storms. The
hurricanes that hit Florida in 2017 caused over $100 billion in damages,
destroying roads, bridges, waterways, and power lines, severely affecting
the city's infrastructure. [11]
- Tokyo, Japan – Heatwaves:
Large cities like Tokyo are vulnerable to the effects of heatwaves. High
temperatures increase energy consumption and have negative health impacts.
This phenomenon strengthens the urban heat island effect. [12]
- Shanghai, China – Heavy Rainfall and Flooding: Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heavy
rainfall events in some regions. In large cities like Shanghai, this can
trigger flooding events that damage infrastructure. [13]
- Lagos, Nigeria – Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion: Some coastal cities in Africa, like Lagos, are at serious risk
due to rising sea levels and coastal erosion. These cities must strengthen
their infrastructure against these changes. [14]
- Melbourne, Australia – Water Scarcity: In
some regions of Australia, increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall
are affecting water resources. Cities like Melbourne are at greater risk
of water scarcity, requiring more efficient water management
infrastructure. [15]
- Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – Storms and Infrastructure Damage: Coastal regions in Brazil may face more frequent and intense
storms as a result of climate change. This can lead to infrastructure
damage and the need for urban planning adjustments. [16]
- 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Europe: An
extreme heatwave that affected Europe in 2022 caused 15,000 deaths in
France and inflicted €15 billion in damages to the French economy. The
heatwave damaged power lines, roads, and buildings. [17]
- 2021 Flood in New York, USA: A
flood in New York City in 2021 submerged buildings and caused damage to
infrastructure. The flood destroyed roads, bridges, and sewer systems. [18]
- 2020 Bushfires in Australia: The
bushfires in Australia in 2020 destroyed power lines, roads, and
waterways. The fires disrupted electricity and water supply to cities,
forcing people to leave their homes. [19]
- 2018 Flood in Houston, USA: A
flood in Houston, USA, in 2018 caused over $30 billion in damages. It
destroyed roads, bridges, and power lines, severely affecting the city's
infrastructure. [20]
EXAMPLES FROM TURKEY
Turkey is a country that experiences the effects of climate change in many
different ways. Some examples illustrating the impact of climate change on
urban linear infrastructure in Turkey are as follows:
Istanbul – Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion:
Istanbul may face coastal erosion and flooding due to rising sea levels. This
can affect urban infrastructure, particularly the infrastructure in coastal
areas. [21]
Marmara Region – Drought and Water Resources: In the
Marmara Region, climate change may place pressure on water resources, with
rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall. This can affect urban
infrastructure in areas such as water consumption, agriculture, and energy
production. [22]
Ankara – Heatwaves and Energy Consumption: In inland
areas like Ankara, increasing heatwaves, especially during summer months, can
lead to higher energy consumption. This can impact air conditioning systems and
energy infrastructure. [23]
Mediterranean Region – Intense Rainfall and Flooding:
In the Mediterranean Region, climate change may increase the frequency and
intensity of extreme rainfall events. This can lead to more frequent flooding
and damage to infrastructure. [24]
Eastern Anatolia Region – Rising Temperatures and
Agriculture: Rising temperatures in the Eastern Anatolia Region can affect the
agricultural sector. Reduced water resources may negatively impact irrigation
systems and agricultural infrastructure. [25]
Black Sea Region – Increased Rainfall and Soil
Erosion: In the Black Sea Region, increased rainfall can lead to more soil
erosion. This may cause damage to infrastructure, particularly transportation
infrastructure.
Extreme Weather Events: Turkey has become more
vulnerable to extreme weather events such as heatwaves, hurricanes, floods, and
droughts. For example, the extreme heatwave that struck Turkey in 2022 caused
damage to electrical lines and roads. [26]
Climate-Sensitive Disease Spread: Climate change may
lead to the spread of heat stress, malaria, and other climate-sensitive
diseases in Turkey. For instance, rising temperatures could lead to more
frequent and intense heat stress events in the country. [27]
The above examples demonstrate the potential impact of
climate change on urban infrastructure in various regions of Turkey. Turkey
must develop strategies that include sustainable planning, water management,
energy efficiency, and other measures to adapt to and withstand these changes.
Turkey is a vulnerable country to the impacts of
climate change. The country’s mountainous topography, coastline, and dry
climate make it more susceptible to the effects of climate change.
PROJECTION OF NEGATIVE IMPACTS
It will be difficult to completely eliminate the negative effects of climate
change on urban infrastructure in the future. However, if appropriate measures
are taken and sustainable strategies are adopted, it is possible to reduce the
negative impacts and adapt:
- Sustainable Infrastructure Development: New
infrastructure projects should be based on sustainable design principles.
Energy-efficient buildings (green buildings), structures resistant to
floods and other climate events, and green spaces can contribute to making
urban infrastructure more resilient.
- Water Management: Climate change can
affect water resources, so it is crucial to adopt effective water
management strategies. Methods like rainwater harvesting systems,
water-saving measures, and efficient irrigation practices (drip
irrigation) can ensure more sustainable use of water resources.
- Green Infrastructure and Afforestation: Green
infrastructure elements can reduce the urban heat island effect and
increase environmental sustainability. Afforestation can provide benefits
such as water absorption, air quality improvement, and shading.
- Risk Management and Emergency Planning:
Cities must be prepared for potential risks related to climate change.
Emergency plans should include strategies to deal with floods, storms, and
other extreme weather events.
- Public Participation and Awareness:
Active public participation and awareness are important in the fight
against climate change. The public should be informed about environmental
issues and the effects of climate change, and encouraged to adopt
sustainable lifestyles.
- Appropriate Policy and Governance:
Effective policies and good governance are essential in addressing climate
change. City administrations should adopt sustainability principles and
develop policies accordingly. However, there are significant concerns in
this area. [28]
These and similar measures can help urban areas adapt
to climate change and minimize its negative impacts. However, this process
should be supported by international cooperation, scientific research, and
public participation.
Due to continued global warming and the
intensification of the effects of climate change, the negative impacts of
global warming and climate change on urban linear infrastructure are expected
to increase in the future. This is because global warming causes more frequent
and severe extreme weather events such as heatwaves, hurricanes, floods,
droughts, and other extreme weather events. These extreme weather events can
damage urban linear infrastructure and disrupt its functions.
Rising sea levels also pose a significant threat to
urban linear infrastructure. The rise in sea levels exposes coastal cities and
islands to flooding, erosion, and other risks. This can destroy roads,
waterways, and electrical lines. An article published in National Geographic
[29] states:
"Changes in sea level are linked to three main factors caused by ongoing
global climate change:
- Thermal Expansion: Water expands as it
warms. About half of the rise in sea levels over the past 25 years is
attributed to warmer oceans that occupy more space.
- Melting Glaciers: Large ice formations,
such as mountain glaciers, naturally melt to some extent every summer.
During winter, snow generally replenishes this loss, mainly from seawater
evaporation. However, recent high temperatures caused by global warming
have led to above-average melting during the summer months and reduced
snowfall due to later winters and earlier springs. This imbalance between
surface runoff and ocean evaporation is contributing to rising sea levels.
- Loss of the Greenland and Antarctica Ice Sheets: As with mountain glaciers, rising temperatures are causing the
massive ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica to melt faster.
Scientists believe that the melting water from the top and the ocean water
from below are effectively liquefying the Greenland ice sheets, causing
them to flow faster toward the sea. The melting of West Antarctica,
particularly the 2017 break in the Larsen C ice shelf, has garnered
significant attention, but glaciers in East Antarctica are also showing
signs of instability."
When sea levels rise at such a fast pace, even a small
increase can have devastating effects on inland coastal habitats, leading to
destructive erosion, wetland flooding, aquifer contamination, and salinization
of agricultural land, as well as habitat loss for fish, birds, and marine life.
Climate change also contributes to the spread of
climate-sensitive diseases, which can lead to health issues that disrupt the
functions of urban linear infrastructure. For instance, rising temperatures may
contribute to heat stress and the spread of diseases such as malaria.
To reduce the negative impacts of global warming and
climate change on urban linear infrastructure, measures must be taken to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and make cities more resilient to the effects of
climate change.
EXPECTED NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON ISTANBUL
Istanbul is a metropolis experiencing the effects of
climate change and is actively taking various measures to mitigate them. The
anticipated negative impacts and the measures being taken are outlined below:
- Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion:
Rising sea levels and coastal erosion in the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara
can affect the city's coastal areas. Due to sea level rise, Istanbul has
become more vulnerable to floods and erosion. For example, in 2022, some
coastal areas of Istanbul were submerged due to the rising sea levels. As
a result, the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is taking measures
such as coastal protection projects and sea walls to safeguard these
areas. [30]
- Heatwaves and Energy Consumption:
Istanbul may experience heatwaves, which could increase energy
consumption. The local government is implementing measures to reduce
energy use through energy efficiency projects and eco-friendly building
standards. [31]
- Heavy Rainfall and Flood Risk:
Istanbul may face heavy rainfall, particularly during winter, which could
increase the risk of flooding. IMM is taking steps such as strengthening
infrastructure, improving stormwater drainage systems, and enhancing
emergency response plans for flood situations. [32]
- Transportation and Traffic Management:
Rising temperatures in Istanbul could exacerbate traffic and air pollution
problems. Therefore, IMM aims to improve the transportation infrastructure
through strategies like expanding public transport, increasing bike lanes,
and protecting green spaces. [33]
- Green Infrastructure Projects:
Projects to increase green spaces and develop parks within the city are
efforts to mitigate the effects of urban heat islands. These projects aim
to preserve and expand natural areas in various parts of the city. [34]
- Extreme Weather Events: Istanbul has become
more vulnerable to extreme weather events such as heatwaves, hurricanes,
floods, and droughts. For example, the extreme heatwave that hit Istanbul
in 2022 caused damage to electrical lines and roads. [35]
- Spread of Climate-sensitive Diseases:
Climate change may lead to the spread of heat stress, malaria, and other
climate-sensitive diseases in Istanbul. For example, rising temperatures
could result in more frequent and severe heat stress events. [36],
[37]
These examples reflect the steps Istanbul is taking to
combat climate change. However, it is essential to strengthen these efforts and
implement sustainability and adaptation strategies more effectively. Istanbul
is a city vulnerable to the effects of global warming and climate change, with
its location, population density, and infrastructure making it more susceptible
to these impacts.
EXAMPLES FROM THE PAST
Some events in Istanbul's history provide examples of
the effects of climate change and environmental impacts:
- 1961 Flood: The flood that hit Istanbul in 1961 caused
significant damage to the city's infrastructure. Roads, bridges, and power
lines were destroyed.
- 1977 Flood: The flood that struck Istanbul in 1977 caused
severe damage to the city's infrastructure. Roads, bridges, and power
lines were again damaged.
- 1999 Earthquake: The earthquake that hit Istanbul in 1999 caused
significant damage to the city's infrastructure, including roads, bridges,
buildings, and utilities.
- 2022 Heatwave: The extreme heatwave in 2022 caused damage to
electrical lines and roads and resulted in over 100 fatalities in
Istanbul.
- 2009 Istanbul Flood Disaster: In
2009, Istanbul faced a flood disaster caused by heavy rainfall. This event
tested the city's infrastructure systems, particularly stormwater drainage
systems. The floods highlighted the challenges of urban infrastructure
sustainability.
- 2017 Snowfall and Transportation Issues: In
2017, heavy snowfalls disrupted Istanbul's transportation infrastructure.
Roads were blocked, and public transport services were disrupted,
illustrating the impact of extreme weather on urban infrastructure.
- 2018 Istanbul Flood Disaster: In
2018, heavy rainfall in the summer led to severe flooding in Istanbul,
particularly in its lower regions. The floods caused water accumulation
and infrastructure damage, highlighting issues in urban planning and
infrastructure management.
These examples demonstrate how Istanbul has been
affected by climate change and extreme weather events in the past. They
underscore the need for more effort and strategic development in urban
planning, infrastructure, and emergency preparedness.
The 2022 heatwave presented a new threat to Istanbul's
infrastructure. The heat caused damage to electrical lines and roads and led to
over 100 deaths. These examples show that Istanbul must strengthen its
infrastructure to become more resilient to the effects of climate change.
EXPECTED NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND
CLIMATE CHANGE ON PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN ISTANBUL
The expected negative impacts of global warming and
climate change on Istanbul's public transportation systems are as follows: [38]
- Increased Temperatures and Comfort Issues: Rising temperatures due to global warming could lead to comfort
issues for passengers traveling on public transport. Especially during
peak hours and when air conditioning is not sufficient, the temperature
inside the vehicles may increase.
- Increased Frequency of Heatwaves: As
the frequency and severity of heatwaves increase, disruptions and
interruptions in public transportation systems may become more common.
This could increase energy consumption and make it more challenging to
maintain regular and efficient transportation services.
- Flood and Overflow Risks: As
heavy rainfall increases in Istanbul, the risk of flooding and overflow
may also rise. This could increase the likelihood of metro stations, tram
lines, and roads being submerged, leading to disruptions in public
transport.
- Infrastructure Damage and Repairs:
Increased extreme weather events and climate change may damage public
transport infrastructure. Damage from floods, storms, or other natural
disasters could increase the costs of infrastructure repairs and
maintenance.
- Route Changes: Climate change may lead to higher demand for
transport on certain routes or disruptions in specific areas. This may
necessitate revisions to public transport routes, additional services, or
alternative routes.
- Increased Energy Consumption: High
temperatures and heatwaves could result in more use of air conditioning
systems, leading to an increase in energy consumption in public transport
vehicles. This could drive up operational costs.
To mitigate these negative effects, it is essential to
develop sustainable public transport strategies, adapt infrastructure to
climate change, and establish emergency plans.
NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ON ROADS
The negative impacts of global warming and climate
change on roads in Istanbul are as follows: [39]
- Road Surface Damages: Rising temperatures and
extreme weather events can cause cracks, deformations, and erosion on
asphalt road surfaces. This increases road maintenance and repair costs.
- Unsustainable Transportation Infrastructure: Increasing temperatures and heavy rainfall in Istanbul challenge
the sustainability of the existing transportation infrastructure. The
failure of infrastructure to adapt to these changes leads to
transportation disruptions and safety issues.
- Flooding and Inundation:
Intense rainfall and flood risks increase the likelihood of roads being
submerged. This negatively affects the movement of vehicles and endangers
road safety.
- Damage to Bridges and Tunnels:
Bridges and tunnels in Istanbul are exposed to climate change effects such
as changes in sea levels, heavy rainfall, and storms. These adverse
effects necessitate regular maintenance and reinforcement efforts.
- Reduction in Road Capacity:
Rising temperatures increase traffic congestion and vehicle emissions,
which in turn deteriorate air quality and reduce road capacity.
- Dilemmas in Public Transportation: The
inaccessibility of roads or traffic disruptions negatively affect public
transportation systems. Increasing temperatures disrupt metro, tram, and
bus services, reducing passenger comfort.
To mitigate these effects, climate change must be
considered in Istanbul's infrastructure projects, sustainable transportation
strategies should be adopted, and emergency action plans should be developed.
Additionally, urban planning and infrastructure development efforts should be
aligned with climate change adaptation. Roads are a crucial component of
Istanbul’s transportation system. The effects of global warming and climate
change severely disrupt the city’s road system and negatively impact Istanbul’s
economic and social development.
To reduce these effects, the Istanbul Metropolitan
Municipality (IMM) has implemented several measures, including:
- Constructing roads resistant to extreme weather events
- Building flood protection walls in coastal areas to mitigate risks
associated with rising sea levels
- Developing road maintenance and repair plans that incorporate
climate change adaptation
Additional measures to counter extreme weather events
include:
- Improving stormwater drainage systems on roads
- Using heat-resistant materials for road surfaces
- Ensuring the availability of vehicles, equipment, and personnel for
repairing damage caused by hurricanes and floods
NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ON WATER AND SEWERAGE SYSTEMS
The expected negative impacts of global warming and
climate change on water and sewerage systems in Istanbul are as follows:
- Reduction in Water Resources:
Rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation lead to a decline in
water resources, affecting drinking water supply, irrigation, and
industrial water usage. [40],
[41]
- Water Scarcity: Low precipitation and increasing temperatures
cause water shortages, impacting the availability of drinking water and
general water supply during periods of scarcity.
- Increased Drought Risk:
Istanbul faces an increasing risk of drought, which creates challenges for
water supply. Low reservoir levels result in water supply disruptions and
deterioration in water quality.
- Flood and Inundation Risks:
Intense rainfall and storms negatively impact sewerage systems and water
treatment facilities, increasing flood risks and causing infrastructure
damage.
- Disruptions in Sewerage Systems:
Increased rainfall and sudden weather changes overload sewerage systems,
leading to malfunctions, overflows, and water pollution.
- Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion:
Climate change contributes to rising sea levels and coastal erosion,
affecting water and sewerage infrastructure in coastal areas and
increasing the risk of seawater intrusion into underground water sources.
- Challenges in Water Treatment Facilities: Changing climate conditions affect the performance of water
treatment plants, making water quality management more complex and costly.
- Impacts on Water Quality:
Climate change negatively affects water quality. Rising temperatures
promote the proliferation of algae and bacteria in water bodies. [42]
To mitigate these adverse effects, sustainable water
resource management, strengthened water conservation policies, flood management
strategies, and climate-resilient infrastructure should be implemented.
Istanbul’s water and sewerage systems are among the
city’s vital infrastructures. The impacts of global warming and climate change
severely damage these systems, adversely affecting drinking water supply and
wastewater management.
To mitigate these effects, the IMM has undertaken
several measures, including:
- Constructing water and sewerage systems resistant to extreme
weather events
- Building flood protection walls in coastal areas to mitigate risks
associated with rising sea levels
- Improving stormwater drainage systems in water distribution
networks
- Using heat-resistant materials in water and sewerage systems
- Ensuring the availability of vehicles, equipment, and personnel for
repairing damage caused by hurricanes and floods
These measures will help reduce the damage that
extreme weather events can cause to water and sewerage systems, making them
more secure and resilient.
NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
The expected negative effects of global warming and
climate change on energy infrastructure in Istanbul are outlined below: [43]
- Increased Energy Consumption: High
temperatures, especially during the summer months, lead to increased use
of air conditioning systems, resulting in higher energy demand and an
increase in electricity consumption.
- Power Outages: Rising temperatures, sudden surges in energy
demand, and extreme weather events cause disruptions in electrical grids.
During peak usage periods, the energy infrastructure struggles to meet
demand.
- Water Shortages and Hydroelectric Power Production: Decreased rainfall affects the water sources of hydroelectric
power plants, leading to water shortages and reductions in hydroelectric
power generation.
- Increased Heat: Electricity-powered devices and energy
transmission lines heat up more due to rising temperatures, causing
increased energy losses, reducing the efficiency of transmission lines,
and raising costs.
- Rising Sea Levels and Damage to Energy Infrastructure: Climate change causes rising sea levels and increases the risk of
flooding due to extreme weather events. This damages energy
infrastructure, particularly affecting energy facilities located in
coastal areas.
- Energy Production Imbalance Issues:
Renewable energy sources, such as wind power, face challenges due to
increasing wind fluctuations and variable weather conditions caused by
climate change. This results in imbalances in energy production and
difficulties in balancing supply and demand.
To address these negative impacts, strategies should
be adopted in Istanbul, including making the energy infrastructure more
resilient to climate change, implementing energy efficiency policies, and
increasing the use of renewable energy sources.
Energy infrastructure is one of Istanbul’s vital
infrastructures. The effects of global warming and climate change can
significantly affect the city’s energy infrastructure and negatively impact its
energy security. [44]
To mitigate these effects, the Istanbul Metropolitan
Municipality (İBB) is taking some measures, including:
- Building energy infrastructure resilient to extreme weather events
- Constructing flood protection walls in coastal areas to reduce
risks from rising sea levels
- Developing energy plans that adapt to climate change
Specifically, measures to counter extreme weather
events include:
- Improving rainwater drainage systems in electrical grids
- Using materials resistant to extreme heat waves in energy
infrastructure
- Ensuring the availability of tools, equipment, and personnel to
repair damage caused by hurricanes, floods, and other extreme weather
events.
NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ON TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEMS
Global warming and climate change can have various
negative effects on telecommunication systems in Istanbul:
- Temperature and Equipment Performance:
Rising temperatures adversely affect telecommunication equipment, causing
devices to overheat, which can reduce their performance and shorten their
lifespan.
- Increased Energy Consumption: High
temperatures lead to higher energy consumption in telecommunication
infrastructure, and as climate control systems and cooling needs increase,
energy costs and demand can rise.
- Extreme Weather Events and Infrastructure Damage: Climate change can lead to extreme weather events, storms, and
flooding, which can damage telecommunication infrastructure and cause
network outages.
- Rising Sea Levels and Coastal Erosion: Some
areas of Istanbul face risks from rising sea levels and coastal erosion,
which can affect telecommunication infrastructure in coastal regions.
- Climate-Resilient Equipment:
Climate change impacts the durability of telecommunication equipment,
creating a need for more resilient and climate-adaptive tools and devices.
- Water Damage and Power Outages: Heavy
rainfall and flooding can affect cables and devices in the infrastructure.
Additionally, extreme weather events may lead to power outages, negatively
impacting communication infrastructure.
- Data Center Performance:
Rising temperatures increase cooling needs in data centers, raising both
energy and system maintenance costs.
To mitigate these impacts, the İBB is taking some
measures, including:
- Constructing telecommunication infrastructure resilient to extreme
weather events
- Building flood protection walls in coastal areas to reduce risks
from rising sea levels
- Developing telecommunication plans that adapt to climate change.
Taking these measures will make Istanbul’s
telecommunication system more resilient to the effects of climate change.
Specifically, measures to address extreme weather events include:
- Improving rainwater drainage systems in telecommunication networks
- Using materials resistant to extreme heat waves in
telecommunication infrastructure
- Ensuring the availability of devices and personnel to repair damage
from hurricanes, floods, and other extreme weather events
- Ensuring fiber optic cables are made from materials resistant to
extreme heat waves and humidity
- Making mobile base stations resistant to extreme weather conditions
such as strong winds and heavy rain
- Moving telecommunication networks underground in coastal areas to
reduce risks from rising sea levels.
THE IMPACT
OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON GREEN SPACES AND LANDSCAPE
In
Istanbul, global warming and climate change can have various negative effects
on green spaces and the landscape, as outlined below: [45], [46]
- Temperature Increase and Drought:
Rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall increase the risk of drought,
which negatively impacts the vegetation in green spaces, leading to drying
out and weakening of plants.
- Extreme Weather Events: Due to climate change,
extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, storms, and floods are
becoming more frequent, resulting in damage to green spaces and an
increased risk of erosion.
- Plant and Habitat Changes:
Temperature and climate changes affect regional vegetation, reduce the
habitats of endemic plant species, and negatively impact biodiversity.
- Decreased Water Resources:
Decreasing rainfall and rising temperatures are causing a reduction in
water resources, which makes it more difficult to irrigate parks, gardens,
and other green areas.
- Urban Heat Island Effect in Green Spaces: High buildings, asphalt roads, and other structures create urban
heat islands, reducing the temperature-regulating effect of green spaces
and weakening the cooling impact provided by vegetation.
- Increase in Harmful Organisms:
Temperature changes and increased humidity raise the likelihood of harmful
insects and diseases spreading, which affects the health of plants in
green spaces.
- Rising Sea Levels and Coastal Areas: The
coastal areas of Istanbul are being damaged due to rising sea levels,
leading to erosion of green spaces in the coastal regions.
To reduce
these negative effects, it is crucial to adopt sustainable practices such as
green space planning and management, water resource management,
drought-resistant strategies, and landscape designs that support local plant
species. Additionally, urban planning and infrastructure development should be
addressed in a way that is suitable for climate change.
Some
measures are being taken by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM),
including:
- Developing green space and landscape designs resilient to extreme
weather events
- Conducting green space and landscape works above sea level to
mitigate risks from rising sea levels in coastal areas
- Developing green space and landscape plans that accommodate climate
change
Particularly,
the following measures can be taken to address extreme weather events:
- Improving rainwater drainage systems in green spaces
- Using plant species in green spaces that are resistant to extreme
heatwaves
- Keeping devices and personnel on standby to repair damages caused
by extreme weather events like hurricanes and floods in green spaces
These
measures will make Istanbul’s green spaces and landscapes more resilient to the
impacts of climate change.
THE IMPACTS
OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE
Global warming
and climate change can have various negative effects on the infrastructure
systems in Istanbul. [47]
- Flooding and Overflow Risk:
Intense rainfall in Istanbul increases the risk of floods, affecting
infrastructure systems, especially water and sewage systems, causing
damage.
- Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion: Due
to global warming, rising sea levels increase the risk of erosion in
coastal areas, which affects coastal infrastructure, damaging roads,
ports, and other marine-related infrastructure.
- Heat Islands: High-rise buildings, asphalt roads, and intense
urbanization lead to the formation of heat islands in the city. This
phenomenon can accelerate environmental temperature increases and raise
energy demand.
- Damage to Energy Transmission Lines: Extreme
weather events such as storms and heavy rainfall can damage energy
transmission lines, leading to power outages and damage to energy
infrastructure.
- Temperature Increase and Infrastructure Durability: High temperatures cause cracks in road surfaces, expansion issues
in bridges, and durability problems in other infrastructure elements.
- Water Shortages and Water Infrastructure: Decreased rainfall and rising temperatures lead to a reduction in
water resources, which affects water infrastructure and causes
restrictions in water supply.
- Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Problems: Rising temperatures, especially during the summer, cause
excessive heating of asphalt roads, resulting in increased traffic
problems, negatively affecting transportation infrastructure.
- Infrastructure Repairs and Maintenance Costs: Temperature changes, extreme weather events, and other climate
change impacts increase the need for more frequent repairs and maintenance
of infrastructure, leading to higher costs.
To address
these impacts, climate-resilient infrastructure projects should be developed,
adopting strategies for resilience and durability, and emergency planning
should be carried out. Additionally, sustainability-focused urban planning and
infrastructure management strategies should be implemented.
To mitigate
these effects, some measures have been taken by the Istanbul Metropolitan
Municipality (IMM), including:
- Constructing infrastructure resilient to extreme weather events
- Building flood protection walls along coastal areas to reduce risks
from rising sea levels
- Developing infrastructure plans that adapt to climate change
- Improving stormwater drainage systems in infrastructure
- Using materials in infrastructure that are resistant to extreme
heatwaves
- Having devices and personnel available to repair damage caused by
extreme weather events such as hurricanes and floods
- Implementing water-saving systems in infrastructure
- Using drought-resistant materials in infrastructure
- Using materials in infrastructure that are resistant to extreme
heatwaves
These
measures will make Istanbul's infrastructure more resilient to the effects of
climate change.
EXTREME
WEATHER EVENTS: THE CASE OF ISTANBUL [48]
Extreme
weather events are possible in Istanbul and its surrounding areas. Istanbul is
located in a geography surrounded by the Black Sea to the north, the Sea of
Marmara to the south, and the Aegean Sea to the west. This situation exposes
the city to various climatic effects. In Istanbul, the effects of continental
climate, maritime climate, and land climate come together. This causes various
weather conditions to occur in different seasons. Additionally, due to climate
change, increasing temperatures, changes in rainfall, and other factors may
affect the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
Possible
extreme weather events include:
- Heavy Rainfall and Flooding:
Heavy rainfall can occasionally occur in Istanbul, particularly in the
fall and winter months. This can increase the risk of flooding.
- Storms and Hurricanes: Storms coming from the
Sea of Marmara and the Black Sea can affect Istanbul. Especially during
winter, strong winds and storms may occur.
- Snowfall: Cold weather conditions in the winter months
may cause snowfall in Istanbul. However, these events usually have
short-term impacts in the city.
- Heatwaves: During the summer months, heatwaves can affect
Istanbul. High temperatures can impact life in the city and energy demand.
- Tornadoes: Due to the maritime climate and the interaction
of warm and cold air masses, tornadoes can occasionally be observed in the
Istanbul area.
- Heatwaves: Istanbul has a temperate climate and
experiences heatwaves in the summer. Due to global warming, the frequency
and intensity of heatwaves in Istanbul have been increasing.
- Drought: Istanbul is located in a region with low
rainfall. Due to global warming, the risk of drought in Istanbul is
increasing.
It is
important to be prepared for such extreme weather events and adapt urban
planning to these events. Efforts in infrastructure, emergency management, and
climate change adaptation in Istanbul aim to enhance the city's capacity to
cope with such events.
Extreme
weather events are likely in Istanbul and its surrounding areas. The effects of
global warming and climate change are increasing the frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events in Istanbul. Reducing carbon emissions, preserving and
developing green spaces, and conserving water will help make Istanbul more
resilient to the effects of climate change
CLIMATE
CHANGE: A TRANSITION FROM CONTINENTAL AND MARITIME CLIMATES TO TROPICAL
CLIMATE?
There are
two separate views on this issue: The first view suggests that it cannot be
claimed that the climate in Istanbul and its surroundings is transitioning to
tropical climates. Tropical climates are generally found in wide regions
located in the equatorial zone, between the 30-degree north and south
latitudes. Istanbul, on the other hand, is located at 41 degrees north
latitude, which places it far from the tropical climate zone. Istanbul is
situated in an area where continental and maritime climate influences merge. It
has a climate that can be cold and rainy in the winters and hot and dry in the
summers. However, climate change may cause a global increase in temperatures
and alterations in weather patterns. The rising temperatures, rising sea levels,
and the increased frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change
could lead to local climate changes as well. However, it is unlikely that these
changes will result in a transition to tropical climates. Due to its
geographical location, Istanbul will continue to experience both continental
and maritime climate influences.
The second
view suggests that it is possible to claim that the climate in Istanbul and its
surroundings is transitioning toward a tropical climate. Istanbul has a
temperate climate. The effects of global warming and climate change are making
Istanbul's climate warmer and more humid. These changes have raised concerns
about Istanbul's climate transitioning to a tropical climate.
For
example, Prof. Dr. Murat Türkeş states: "Prof. Dr. Murat Türkeş, a member
of the Board of Directors of the Boğaziçi University Climate Change and Policy
Application and Research Center, says, 'With the effects of climate change,
Turkey is transitioning from a subtropical climate to a tropical climate. The
current temperature regime is almost approaching tropical climate conditions...
With the effects of climate change, Turkey is moving toward a tropical climate
from a subtropical climate. The current temperature regime is almost
approaching tropical climate conditions. Especially the effects of winter are
decreasing. Spring seasons can be milder. All of these indicate that we are
moving into a milder period. All of these suggest that, in the future, there
may be a tropical climate with two seasons, one cool and cold, and the other
hot and mild, rather than the four-season model... Particularly, the rise in
surface and lower atmosphere temperatures, and consequently the rise in ocean
and sea water temperatures, along with related weather events, are influencing
these changes. Climate change is altering regional air circulation, pressure,
and wind systems... We must use less fossil fuel... We must use less fossil
fuel in energy, transportation, agriculture, and housing. Energy efficiency and
conservation principles should be applied across all sectors and in our daily
lives. The proportion of new and renewable energy in primary energy sources
should be increased. Our lifestyles and consumption habits must change. Public
transportation should be developed to reduce the use of individual vehicles.
With fundamental changes, we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions drop by
drop." [49]
Some
observations showing the effects of climate change in Istanbul are as follows:
- Average Temperature Increase: The
average temperature in Istanbul has increased by 1.5°C over the past 100
years. This increase has led to hotter summers and milder winters in
Istanbul.
- Changes in Precipitation: The
amount of precipitation in Istanbul has varied over the past 100 years.
However, there is a general trend of decreasing rainfall. This reduction
is increasing the risk of drought in Istanbul.
- Increase in Frequency of Extreme Weather Events: The frequency of extreme weather events in Istanbul is
increasing. Heat waves, hurricanes, floods, and droughts are becoming more
common in Istanbul.
These
observations suggest that Istanbul's climate is transitioning to a tropical
climate. Tropical climates are hot and humid. The increase in average
temperature and the decrease in precipitation are making the climate in
Istanbul hotter and more humid. These changes could lead to the emergence of
tropical plant species in Istanbul and negatively affect the city's ecological
balance. To prevent Istanbul's climate from transitioning to a tropical
climate, measures must be taken to mitigate the effects of climate change.
These measures include:
- Reducing carbon emissions
- Protecting and developing green spaces
- Water conservation
By taking
these measures, Istanbul can become more resilient to the effects of climate
change.
The
appearance of tropical fish in certain regions and the occurrence of tornadoes
are generally linked to climate change, temperature changes, and meteorological
factors. These events can occur when specific climate conditions change or when
tropical characteristics increase in that region.
- Temperature Changes: Tropical fish generally
prefer warmer waters. Climate change or regional temperature increases may
cause these fish species to migrate further north or south. In this case,
tropical fish that were previously unseen may appear in more temperate
regions.
- Increase in Sea Temperature: One
of the factors influencing the migration of tropical fish is sea
temperature. An increase in sea temperature may expand the range of
tropical fish and allow them to appear at higher latitudes.
- Weather Conditions and Tornadoes:
Tornadoes are violent storms that form when warm and cold air masses meet.
Climate change, temperature changes in the atmosphere, and rising sea
temperatures can affect the frequency and intensity of tornadoes. Higher
temperatures can lead to more energy accumulating in the atmosphere,
increasing the likelihood of severe weather events.
However,
the appearance of tropical fish in a particular region and the occurrence of
tornadoes may not be solely due to climate change; they could result from a
combination of various factors. These factors include sea temperature, water
currents, food sources, sea currents, and wind. Additionally, the relationship
between meteorological events and tornadoes is quite complex and cannot be
explained by a single cause.
Prof. Dr.
Mehmet Gökoğlu, a faculty member at the Faculty of Fisheries at Akdeniz
University, who draws attention to the fact that migrations sometimes occur
through the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean, as well as the occasional entry of
species from the Atlantic Ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, states:
"The main factor triggering these migrations is global warming. The
Mediterranean is gradually becoming more tropical in terms of biodiversity...
Nearly 100 fish species migrating from the Red Sea were detected in the
İskenderun Gulf, and 65 fish species in the Antalya Gulf. Migrations are not
limited to fish. All types of living groups in the marine environment are
entering the Mediterranean... Many species of jellyfish seen in the Gulf are
not native... Many species of crabs, algae, oysters, and mussels are also
originally from the Red Sea. Similarly, some species of sea urchins and sea
cucumbers, known as echinoderms, are exotic. We are frequently encountering
pufferfish and lionfish. For example, the cardinal fish that has entered the
Antalya Gulf has become a very dominant species." [50]
The
appearance of tropical fish and the occurrence of tornadoes in Turkey and its
surroundings are a result of the effects of climate change. Climate change is
increasing the temperature of oceans. This rising temperature is causing the
habitats of tropical fish to expand. Tropical fish are being forced to migrate
to cooler waters, and as a result, they are beginning to appear in more
northern regions like Turkey.
Tornadoes
are extreme weather events typically seen in tropical and subtropical regions.
Tornadoes form when warm and humid air meets cold and dry air. Climate change,
by raising ocean temperatures, is increasing the likelihood of tornado
formation.
Turkey,
surrounded by the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea, is at high risk
for tornado formation. Due to global warming, sea temperatures in Turkey are
rising, which is increasing the likelihood of tornado formation. The appearance
of tropical fish and the formation of tornadoes in Turkey and its surroundings
is a clear indication of the significant effects of climate change. To prevent
these effects from worsening, measures must be taken to combat climate change.
- Appearance of Tropical Fish:
Tropical fish prefer warm and clear waters. Due to climate change, ocean
temperatures are rising, and the increasing warmth in temperate regions is
expanding the habitats of tropical fish. For instance, tropical fish that
were previously unseen in Europe are now being seen more frequently. The
appearance of tropical fish in the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and
Aegean Sea in Turkey is a result of climate change.
- Formation of Tornadoes: Tornadoes form when
warm and humid air meets cold and dry air. Climate change is increasing
ocean temperatures, which is raising the likelihood of tornado formation.
Turkey, surrounded by the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea, is
highly prone to tornado formation. Due to global warming, sea temperatures
in Turkey are rising, which is increasing the likelihood of tornado
formation. For example, a tornado in the Black Sea region of Turkey in
2023 was considered a result of climate change. This tornado was the first
tornado to occur in Turkey. The appearance of tropical fish and the
formation of tornadoes in Turkey and its surroundings show that the
effects of climate change are reaching serious levels. [51]
EVALUATION,
CONCLUSION, AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
Global warming and the
resulting climate change phenomena are eroding the resilience of cities to
natural and climate-related disasters. Climate change renders urban linear
infrastructures non-functional in many ways. Countries are experiencing
significant losses in various areas, ranging from tornadoes and floods to
transitions from continental climates to tropical climates, from homelessness
to the destruction of industries and agriculture. More importantly, the high
costs of necessary precautions create significant macroeconomic and financial
burdens on countries. Local governments have many measures they can take in
this area; however, it is not feasible for them to bear the cost. Therefore,
the responsibility for these measures must largely fall on central governments.
The effects of global
warming and climate change severely weaken the resilience of cities to natural
and climatic events. These phenomena negatively affect urban infrastructure in
various ways, causing issues such as tornadoes, floods, climate-type changes,
and housing problems. Additionally, this situation causes significant damage to
industry and agriculture, disrupting the economic balance of countries.
What is crucial is the need
to take measures to cope with these negative effects and minimize future risks.
However, implementing these measures requires high costs and creates
significant macroeconomic and financial burdens on countries. This highlights
the reality that local governments cannot shoulder this responsibility alone.
In this context, it is a fact that local governments can take various measures,
but due to limited budgets, it is often not possible to cover the costs and
implement them effectively. Therefore, in order to be more effective in
combating climate change and take necessary steps for a sustainable future, the
measures should be primarily led and undertaken by central governments. This
should be supported not only at the national level but also through
international cooperation and coordination. By doing so, effective global
solutions can be developed to increase urban resilience and ensure stronger
resilience in the fight against climate change.
Research on climate change
and urban resilience is important for both generating new scientific findings
and developing effective solutions. Here are some research topics that could be
suggested in this area:
·
Local
Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Research examining the impacts of climate
change on the local economy in specific regions. Studies on the effects of
natural disasters caused by climate change on local businesses and agriculture.
·
Urban
Infrastructure Resilience and Climate Change: Research assessing the capacity of urban
infrastructure to cope with climate change. Studies investigating the
effectiveness and applicability of sustainable urban infrastructure projects.
·
Cost-Effectiveness
Analyses:
Cost-effectiveness analyses of measures to combat climate change. Research
aimed at understanding local governments' and communities' tendencies to invest
in measures against climate change.
·
Community
Participation and Awareness: Studies evaluating communication strategies that encourage active
participation of urban communities in combating climate change. Research on the
effects of educational programs aimed at increasing public awareness of climate
change.
·
Governance
and Policy Analyses: Research examining the processes through which local governments
develop and implement climate change policies. Comparative analysis of urban
resilience policies in different countries.
·
Innovative
Technologies for Climate Change Adaptation: Research examining how innovative
technologies (e.g., smart city technologies) can be used in climate change
adaptation. Studies evaluating the effects of technological solutions on urban
resilience.
These suggested research
topics could be useful for generating more knowledge and solutions in the fight
against climate change and enhancing urban resilience. Each topic could bring
together researchers from various disciplines, offering a multifaceted
perspective.
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[1] International
Panel on Climate Change.
[2] Cryosphere
refers to the areas on the Earth's surface where water exists in solid form,
such as snow and ice. This includes sea ice, lake ice, river ice, snow cover,
glaciers, ice sheets, and frozen ground. It has a significant overlap with the
hydrosphere.
[3] At the
point we have reached today, it is understood that even by 2030, this target
will not be achieved, and we are in an irreversible process of global warming.r.euronews.com/green/2022/05/10/dunya-meteoroloji-orgutu-kuresel-s-nmada-1-5-derece-esigini-asma-olas-l-g-yar-yar-
#: ~#:~:text=1%2C5%20derece%20neden%20eşik,giderek%20daha%20riskli%20hale%20
geliyor.
[4] OECD. Group on Urban Affairs. Project Group on
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[5] The
expression "The ability of an urban system to withstand shocks and quickly
return to its original state while maintaining its services" is defined in
UN-Habitat's "Resilience Guide for Sustainable Cities" as follows:
"Resilient cities are those that are resistant to
and can quickly recover from shocks and disasters. These cities have the
capacity to maintain their services and meet the needs of their
populations." Additionally, urban resilience refers to "the ability
of urban systems to withstand shocks and rapidly recover, encompassing systems
that provide essential services such as infrastructure, energy, water,
transportation, communication, health, and education." Therefore, the
aforementioned expression aligns with the definition of "resilient
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[6] Türkeş,
M. (2001). Air, Climate, Severe Weather Events, and Global Warming.
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23 November 2023
[9] Sözcü
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[10] Görgülü,
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[11] Bianet.
“ABD kıyılarında deniz seviyesi rekor ölçüde yükseldi”. 11 Nisan 2023.
[12] Urban
Heat Island Effect: The temperature in city centers is 2-4°C higher than in
suburban or rural areas.
[13] Dünya Newspaper.
“Çin'de sel alarmı”. 17 June 2011.
[14] Duvar Newspaper.
“Afrika'nın en kalabalık kenti Lagos selle mücadele ediyor: Yakında yaşanmaz
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[15] Başman,
C. & Ç. Bakırcı. Evrim Ağacı. "Australia’s Millennium Drought
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2022."
[18] BBC.
"Flooding in https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-58417450New
York and surrounding areas: At least 20 dead, U.S. President Biden says this is
proof of the climate crisis."
[19] According
to a report published in 2020 by the Australian National Natural Disaster
Arrangements Royal Commission, the bushfires that devastated the country in
what is known as Australia's "Black Summer" resulted in the
destruction of over 24 million hectares, the burning of 3,500 homes, and the
loss of numerous animal lives.
[20] BBC.
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[21] Anadolu
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Izmir." Biriz Özbakır, September 7, 2023.
[22] Water
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[23] Karacan,
G. & D. Gökçe. "Climate Resilience Theme in Urban Planning: The Case
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